Weekend Box Office by Klady – Avaseis
What was most striking about the weekend numbers, aside from Avatar’s ongoing worldwide rampage, was what seems to be an actual Globes bump. Yeah… gross. But estimated holds of 29% for Holmes, 25% for Complicated, 20% for Blind Side, 23% for George In the Air, and even small-count holds from Young Victoria, Single Man, Broken Embraces and Crazy Heart seem to be getting a sweep of people going down the list and checking out what they haven’t yet seen before Oscar nominations.
Holmes, which was down 40% last weekend in 3 days, even with the holiday, is down just 29% this week, even while losing screens. I don’t see any other explanation other than Downey winning an unexpected (and ridiculous) Globe last Sunday. And while Meryl Streep has won stuff for Julie & Julia, the only Streep performance in the marketplace is It’s Complicated. Bullock & Clooney are less surprising.
Legion did okay… it hurt Book of Eli a little, though Eli’s hold is pretty good. The Tooth Fairy has to be a bit disappointing for a hot-streaking Fox, though if the kids who did see it liked it, word of mouth could do them quite well. We’ll see.
Extraordinary Measures, like all openers, is a failure of marketing more than anything else. Yes, the footage in the ads and trailer looked horrible visually. (There is some debate over whether the movie itself looks as bad… I haven’t seen it, so I can’t tell you.) But it was everything feeling low-end, from outdoor to ads. I am a fan of Debbie Miller, who is there from Fox and WB, but you have to have a team of the highest level to take a movie like this beyond what it is… a heavy-casted TV movie. Universal dumped Lorenzo’s Oil, a movie I love, never going as wide as 500 screens, probably finding the same problem with targeting a market that wants to see parents fighting for sick kids.
Avatar. Well. Time for a new entry…
I’m thinking a $700 million domestic gross for AVATAR is now quite possible, unless ALICE IN WONDERLAND does some damage when it comes out.
And a $1.6 billion international gross is also possible for a WW gross of $2.3 billion.
Alas, Alice in Wonderland will take each and every IMAX screen and most of the 3D screens come March 5th. Ironically, the biggest film of all time is more or less a limited engagement as a result (and, even odder, it will lose those screens on the weekend when it theoretically would have cashed in on an Oscar sweep). Still, I’d be surprised to not see some IMAX screens holding midnight Avatar showings after the first weekend of Alice.
I remember being freaked out last year when the January releases were huge and caused the Xmas hits to fade quickly.
This year, the January crop is weak while Avatar, Alvin, Sherlock, and It’s Complicated have all been super leggy. So everything’s back to normal, basically.
If I were Fox I’d have a plan in place to ship out 2000 flat prints of Avatar for the friday that Alice opens because that Sunday Avatar will be winning most of the non acting oscars and probably best picture/director as well. And not having Avatar in theatres after a big oscar sweep would be stupid considering the bumps that Return of the King and Titanic got post oscar night–and those two are probably the only films one should look to when considering whether or not Avatar will get an oscar wins bump.
I’m still surprised by the lack of box office notices for “Up In the Air.” Im shocked that it’s going to end up with more than $75 million.
Bullock is officially going to dethrone Vardalos for the biggest female-led movie crown…unless you count the Twilight films or Twister.
Emily Blunt quietly had a nice year with “Sunshine Cleaning” and “Young Victoria..” with a busy schedule coming up. Good for her.
So is the problem with Ford the same as with Pacino and De Niro, that there just aren’t leading roles commensurate with their stature for men in late middle age? It seems they all need to accept that they’re old, there’s no getting around it, and they can’t pretend to the leading physical presence they last plausibly had in the mid-90’s. They need to look go for the strong supporting roles that accomplished stars like Michael Caine and Robert Duvall have taken….
Our local multiplex (which had a digital projector back in Phantom Menace days but lost it after Constantine) got a new projector for Hannah. They went all the way up to 2 projectors around Monsters vs Aliens and were running both and the IMAX screen with Avatar-AND selling out all IMAX shows for the 4th Sunday.
They are trying to get a digital projector for one of their 640 seat screens-ironically, the screen I saw Titanic on. I’m thinking this should be in place by Alice time.
On a somewhat related note, how hard is it for the all-digital houses to convert each screen to 3D?
By the time Alice comes around Avatar will have made well over 90% of its money domestically. It’s worth remembering that overall Avatar is more frontloaded than ROTK was. Not to say that the remaining percentage would not be big but I don’t think that calling the remaining 2d showing a “limited engagement” is quite fitting. Most of the demand will be absorbed, and if Avatar does win, I wouldn’t be suprised if 3d presence remains. Theaters will find a way.
Personally, I’m a little dissapointed that “A Series Man” seems to have left the theaters in a somewhat quiet manner. Was hoping it would hang around at least till the nominations.
About $7million to pass Titanic for ALLTIME worldwide. Monday?
I am mistaken. I didn’t realize that the Oscars will be airing on March 7th, the VERY weekend that Avatar loses its IMAX and 3D screens. How ironic that Avatar will finally take a massive box office hit on the very weekend it (most likely) sweeps the Oscars. On the plus side, if Alice In Wonderland under performs (not likely), then Fox may have some leveraging power to return Avatar to some of its 3D screens come March 12th. It’s a strange situation.
Our local multiplex has sold out all 4 IMAX shows for today as well-before 12:30pm.
“A Single Man’s” done a bit better than I would have thought. Maybe it’ll sneak in after all…
Nine now appears to stop below $20 million, which means that it will be eclipsed by the likes of Rent and Fame (even if it’s not a musical) and The Producers.
Some interesting stats to arise from all of this Avatar-mania:
– Sherlock Holmes and Chipmunks will probably be the third and fourth highest grossing films to NEVER hit #1. Both will be do over $200 million, as well.
– Up in the Air could very well become the 2nd or 3rd highest grossing film to NEVER crack the Top Five. We’ll see how much of a bump it gets next weekend, but I can see this thing nearing $100 million without ever being in the Top 5.
As for Avatar holding those 3D screens, didn’t the number of 3D-ready screens dramatically increase with the release of Avatar? I have to think it won’t lose ALL of them to Alice in Wonderland.
Meryl Streep has now lead a $100 million grosser in three of the past four years. Is Julie Roberts the only other actress to have that kind of streak?
Good hold for Eli, considering that Legion was going for the EXACT same audience in its second weekend – I can see that maybe doing about $90 million.
And look out for Crazy Heart – those per screen averages are looking pretty strong. No one would have thought this even a month ago, but I’ll bet it outgrosses The Wrestler with a fraction of the hype.
Neat stats Geoff.
As far as the female question…Cameron Diaz and Roberts I think are the only other 2. Diaz had Best Friend’s Wedding, Something About Mary, Charlie’s Angels, Vanilla Sky for 4 in 5 years from 1997-2001.
eh, Gonzo knight?
“It’s worth remembering that overall Avatar is more frontloaded than ROTK was.”
Day 1: 123% Fr (ROTK opened on a Wed; Avatar’s opening day was 78% that of ROTK’s)
Day 2: 93% Sa
Day 3: 106% Su
Day 4: 121% Mo
Day 5: 129% Tu
Day 6: 218% We (ROTK’s Christmas Eve)
Day 7: 80% Th (Avatar’s Christmas Eve)
Day 8: 121% Fr
Day 9: 164% Sa
Day 10: 171% Su
Day 11: 193% Mo
Day 12: 190% Tu
Day 13: 246% We (ROTK’s New Year’s Eve)
Day 14: 115% Tu (Avatar’s New Year’s Eve)
Day 15: 238% Fr
Day 16: 245% Sa
Day 17: 248% Su
Day 18: 363% Mo
Day 19: 364% Tu
Day 20: 383% We
Day 21: 369% Th
Day 22: 361% Fr
Day 23: 330% Sa
Day 24: 385% Su
Day 25: 465% Mo
Day 26: 441% Tu
Day 27: 479% We
Day 28: 454% Th
Day 29: 437% Fr
Day 30: 374% Sa
Day 31: 469% Su
Day 32: 521% Mo (Martin Luther King Day)
Day 33: 567% Tu
Day 34: 621% We
Day 35: 615% Th
Day 36: 606% Fr
source: http://bit.ly/6khhhS
That’s how much Avatar beat ROTK each day up until Friday, steadily increasing it’s dominance. ROTK’s got peg-legs compared to Avatar. Avatar is much closer to Titanic’s trajectory than anything else.
ELI will become Denzel’s 4th $100 million movie. I didn’t expect that, but good for him. His average domestic gross since 2000 has been $73 million per movie. Decent.
Funny story about A Single Man. I went to see it yesterday, and guess what it’s rated in Ontario?
PG
Male nudity (but no full frontal), a storyline about suicide, yet not that much objectionable material beyond Matt Goode’s bloody face in the opening scenes. Although it feels like an R-Rated movie, it probably only deserved a PG-13, even by MPAA’s silly standards. Too bad homosexuality is still such an issue.
The arthouse market has again collapsed, a fact obscured by “Avatar” hype and the resulting hard sell.
“Doctor Parnassus” — 2-week wonder for the most part. “Broken Romances” — one week and out in the 2 AMCs near me that had it. “A Single Man” — one week and out in the Regal near me that had it. “Crazy Heart” — one week and out in the local arthouse, not sure if they’ll get it back when it goes national on Friday. “The Young Victoria” — never made it out of the arthouse ghetto where I live.
@a_loco: “A Single Man” is rated R in the States.
@doug: That Imax is obviously not in New York City, New Orleans, Minneapolis or Indianapolis.
voltarna, I was making that same point sans the needless “peg-legs” analogy. Everyone’s on the same page anyway.
I usually dismiss people on places like this that claim they’ve never heard of this movie or that, but I can honestly say I’ve never heard of this To Save a Life movie.
“Nine now appears to stop below $20 million, which means that it will be eclipsed by the likes of Rent and Fame (even if it’s not a musical) and The Producers.”
That seems apt since those three are by far more well-known and famous than Nine was on stage.
FWIW, Anne Hathaway had three $100 million grossers in a five-year period: PRINCESS DIARIES 2 (’04), PRADA (’06), GET SMART (’08).
@Kami: “To Save a Life” is a Christian fundamentalist movie playing mostly in the Bible Belt.
Anyone think CBS pictures will have a longer lifespan than Savoy?
DreamWorks’ first picture was the forgettable PEACEMAKER, and they’ve managed to survive. CBS has the resources to keep going for a while, but if a hit doesn’t come along soon, then yes, they’ll be having dinner with Jimmy Hoffa soon enough.
A) THE PEACEMAKER rules. It’s easily one of Clooney’s least pretentious movies, because it isn’t some wannabe-Warren Beatty bit of CAUCASIANPROPERCINEMA, but just a fun movie.
B) WTF ever happened to MIMI LEDER? Long as you dudes are all suddenly on Kathryn Bigelow’s dizznock after WHOLESALE IGNORING HER between 1995 and 2009 when she wasn’t doing ANYTHING… How about some props for Leder, who directed a couple of non-annoying, non-gender-specific spectacle movies without filming them in Vagovision or grinding some axe.
Yes, PEACEMAKER’s enjoyable enough. I was referring to the fact that it limped to $40 million, despite two hot stars and all the publicity about being the first picture from “Spielberg’s company.”