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David Poland

By David Poland

Weekend Box Office by Klady Goes Down The Rabbit Hole

As Friday foretold, Tim Burton’s Alice In Wonderland became the 14th $100 million opening. And I wouldn’t be remotely surprised if the weekend number ends up being a little higher than the estimates out there, not lower. This is a “family film” event and even in Los Angeles, there is plenty of time to load up those matinees before the adults settle into Oscar viewing.
The history of the mega-openers puts the final number between $234m and $533 million. The $30 million-plus leap over any other first quarter opening in history (previous leader, The Passion of The Christ) is significant. It is both well over the “3D ticket price bump” and enough to push studios further into 3D-mania… which remains, in my opinion, mania. Like IMAX, there are movies that make sense in the format and others that do not. Just being a spectacle will not stoke the imagination of the public about 3D, anymore than being on IMAX assures that people will get more excited about a film.
In many ways, Alice gets the massive, inherent benefit of its origins. It is not your traditional franchise launch. And interestingly, the choice not to make this the classic Alice origins story was dangerous… but the visuals overwhelm the storytelling concerns when it comes to opening a movie. It’s the first big visual feast since Avatar and that paid off.
In some ways, I would say that this opening is the opening that Charlie & The Chocolate Factory made possible. Meag-openings have become more standard in the years since 2005, but even more so, the legs on Charlie (almost 4x opening) suggested that there was some hesitance at first from parents of younger kids and that they decided Crazy-Looking Johnny and Creepy Uncle Tim were safe for the kids… and went in droves. This time, they just went for it.
Kudos to the Disney teams, the ones who are gone in the last few months and the ones still waiting to get a direct boss.
The Blind Side hits $250m. For all the whining, Cop Out is now Kevin Smith’s biggest film ever and has a chance of doubling his previous all-time high grosser, Zack & Miri… and will surely do that worldwide, where Bruce Willis should make Smith’s previous best overseas more than triple. Shutter Island will pass The Aviator as Scorsese’s #2 domestic grosser this week and has an outside shot of catching The Departed. If The Hurt Locker wins tonight, look for it to crack $15m at the domestic box office!!!

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9 Responses to “Weekend Box Office by Klady Goes Down The Rabbit Hole”

  1. Chucky in Jersey says:

    3-D is to movies as steroids are to baseball.

  2. brack says:

    I take it you failed those achieve tests back in grade school.

  3. brack says:

    Achievement tests, rather.

  4. Except 3D is legal and everybody knows a movie is in 3D before it breaks records. Chucky, you’re pathetic.
    Look at The Blind Side, going up in takings. Good to see Crazy Heart and Single Man going up too.

  5. Chucky in Jersey says:

    I ain’t pathetic, I keep it real. 3-D will end up as a gimmick just like it was in the 1950s and the 1980s.
    @Kami: “The Blind Side” has been out in the States since November. “Crazy Heart” went wide (1200+ theaters) only this week. “A Single Man”? Good luck finding a theater with that movie, megaplexes especially.

  6. Joe Leydon says:

    Chucky: I saw A Single Man yesterday (Saturday) at the AMC Studio 30 in Houston. Does that count?

  7. Joe Leydon says:

    And BTW: If someone had told you last November that The Blind Side would out-gross Sherlock Holmes

  8. You “keep it real”? good gawd, man. what a wank. Who cares if 3D fades and proves to be nothing more than a gimmick? The fact of the matter is that that gimmick churned out a few huge successes.
    And yes, I am aware that The Blind Side has been out since November (thanks for reminding me you condescending arsehole), but that makes it’s week-to-week increase even more fascinating. And in regards to A Single Man? It went up in takings despite not being available to a new surge of people, which is the reason I was pointing it out. You’re a truly stupid person, Chucky.

  9. CleanSteve says:

    Ok, so I saw ALICE today, and color me underwhelmed. I’m something of a Burton apologist, as i said before. But man…I was bored. It was set-piece to set-piece, had the narrative momentum of old people fucking, and I never once felt anybody was in peril or anything was at stake.
    Plus, this is the first time where I had an issue with the 3D being way too underlit. It really muted the fuck out of visuals I normally would have enjoyed.
    But hey. It has crooked trees. Lots and lots of crooked Tim Burton trees.

Leonard Klady's Friday Estimates
Friday Screens % Chg Cume
Title Gross Thtr % Chgn Cume
Venom 33 4250 NEW 33
A Star is Born 15.7 3686 NEW 15.7
Smallfoot 3.5 4131 -46% 31.3
Night School 3.5 3019 -63% 37.9
The House Wirh a Clock in its Walls 1.8 3463 -43% 49.5
A Simple Favor 1 2408 -50% 46.6
The Nun 0.75 2264 -52% 111.5
Hell Fest 0.6 2297 -70% 7.4
Crazy Rich Asians 0.6 1466 -51% 167.6
The Predator 0.25 1643 -77% 49.3
Also Debuting
The Hate U Give 0.17 36
Shine 85,600 609
Exes Baggage 75,900 62
NOTA 71,300 138
96 61,600 62
Andhadhun 55,000 54
Afsar 45,400 33
Project Gutenberg 36,000 17
Love Yatri 22,300 41
Hello, Mrs. Money 22,200 37
Studio 54 5,300 1
Loving Pablo 4,200 15
3-Day Estimates Weekend % Chg Cume
No Good Dead 24.4 (11,230) NEW 24.4
Dolphin Tale 2 16.6 (4,540) NEW 16.6
Guardians of the Galaxy 7.9 (2,550) -23% 305.8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 4.8 (1,630) -26% 181.1
The Drop 4.4 (5,480) NEW 4.4
Let's Be Cops 4.3 (1,570) -22% 73
If I Stay 4.0 (1,320) -28% 44.9
The November Man 2.8 (1,030) -36% 22.5
The Giver 2.5 (1,120) -26% 41.2
The Hundred-Foot Journey 2.5 (1,270) -21% 49.4