Weekend Box Office by Klady (IM2, Not To Be Confused With I:M2)
$230 million.
$533 million.
This is the range of domestic grosses for films that have opened with 3-days of over $100 million. (Iron Man 2 is the 15th such opening.)
On the low end of the scale of the highest releases, the low domestic total is just under $300 million. That also happened ot be the most recent $100m launch… last November… Twilight: New Moon.
We have very little history to work with here. No movie opened to more than $115m until 2006. It happened twice in 2007, once in 2008 and 2009, and now, already, twice in 2010.
There was, by estimate, a 36% uptick in the opening weekend for Iron Man 2 from the first film. But the real question is… will this be a Twilight 2 (project to $278m) or a Trannys 2 (project to $495m)? Or somewhere in between? I’ll make the third – and easy – guess. But I would also lean more towards Team Abs than toward Team Bay.
Surprise that the first film was, it had a multiple of 3.2x with overwhelmingly positive Word of Mouth
“City Island” is still doing strongly. (maybe the film would gross more than $4 million?)
“Please Give” and “The Secret in their Eyes” also keep doing well.
“Harry Brown” quickly losses steam. Still, the film should be reasonably profitable for its US distributors.
Surprise there hasn’t been more written about “Girl With the Dragon Tattoo.” Taking out the animated Ponyo, it’s going to end up the highest grossing foreign language film in the US since “La Vie En Rose.”
The only foreign language films to gross more in the last five years are Rose, Volver, The Lives of Others, Pan’s Labyrinth and a trio of martial arts films…and three of those were Oscar winners (Volver was an Oscar nominee by a reknowned director).
Also agree with Marychan, we’re actually seeing a decent indie revival with “Ghost Writer,” “City Island,” “Greenberg,” and possibly Secret in Their Eyes and Please Give…
Maychan: I appreciate your postings because, by and large, I think we get so caught up in steel-cage matches for box-office supremacy that we miss (or, perhaps worse, underestimate) what “smaller” films are doing. I mean, at this point, isn’t Death at a Funeral nicely profitable? And as for Harry Brown: It has yet to open in many major markets — like Houston — even though Michael Caine has gotten a lot of national exposure (Letterman, Stewart, etc.). Isn’t this movie likely to continue performing respectably for another month or so? Especially if — and I know DP has ragged me in the past for raising this possibility — more younger moviegoers (i.e., people who don’t know squat about Zulu — which, weirdly enough, Letterman spent a lot of time talking to Caine about — or Alfie or The Ipcress File realize that Batman’s butler is kicking major ass in this one?
How is “Ponyo” a “foreign language film?” And how is one of the lowest percentage drops of any film “losing steam?”
EthanG: What would you say, just off the top of your head, constitutes a “respectable” or “better-than-average” gross for an indie movie these days? I mean, sure, this sort of thing is relative, and there are many factors — cost of production and/or pick-up, reasonable expectations, etc. — but in this day and age, would you agree that nearly $1 million so far for Exit Through the Gift Shop is pretty freakin’ amazing?
I think I forgot a second parenthesis in my posting. Please don’t take it personally, Marychan. It wasn’t like I didn’t think you were worth the extra keystroke.
3-D and Imax make a $100M opening weekend look like it’s on steroids.
More impressive news comes from London: Chelsea 8, Wigan Athletic 0
Chelsea are champions of the Premier League
@chris: “Ponyo” was dubbed into English for US release.
See! There ARE some people in the country who follow soccer!
But Chucky: Iron Man 2 was not available in 3-D. On the other hand, maybe some folks thought it was. Seriously: When I went to see it — in IMAX, of course — I spoke with an assistant theater manager who told me at least a dozen or so people that very afternoon had asked for their 3-D glasses before they went into the auditorium. And he had to explain to them that, well….
@Joe, yeah I agree that 1 million for a documentary of that nature is great nowadays. I’m honestly shocked to read that “Greenberg” is a disappointment…4 million for an indie movie with no awards potential in March would have been great 5 years ago, much less today.
It may seem like nothing, but having three of the Best Foreign Language Films top 2 million at the domestic box office is an accomplishment. This is only the second time since 2002 that’s happened (the other year being 2006).
So far in 2010 we’ve had 14 films initially released in less than 250 theatres hit 1 million (with Please Give and Gift Shop) released before May 1. 9 of those hit 2 million, 8 of them hit 3 million, 6 of them hit 4 million, and 4 hit 5 million. Yeah there are a couple disappointments like Runaways in there and a couple niche market films like “My Name is Khan” and “Hubble 3D” but this is a big move from the last few years.
In 2009….Consider that even though a dozen pre-May limited releases reached 1 million, only six of those hit 2 million and only four hit 3 million….”The Class,” last year’s 3rd highest grossing indie at this point, would only rank 7th in 2010.
Maybe it’s an aberration but it looks like progress to me.
@chris….”Ponyo” was released to multiplexes as a dubbed movie, but a few arthouses that showed it, including where I saw it, presented it subtitled with the original dialogue. I was not about to let Miley Cyrus’s younger sister and a Jonas Brother ruin Miyazaki for me.
That BABIES movie looks REPULSIVE.
Both times I saw that trailer, I wanted to climb under my seat in horror. So maudlin and OFF-PUTTING. Who wants to see that crap for 80 minutes? Anytime anyone’s ever tried to hand me some stupid kid to hold, I’m like “Get that creepy thing away from me.” Won’t hold one, never want to hear about one (sorry new parents.)
Kids give me the CREEPS, and an audience full of HENS cooing and awwing over images of cute babies is the most saccharine kind of manipulation I could ever imagine. At least if it was puppies or cats, those are legitimately cute and likable, unlike infants.
What’s MC’s deal? If you wanna cheerlead the hometeam on the net and discuss biznass every weekend, maybe come up with a creative nom de plum or something? Just a thought.
@EthanG: I know you’ve brought this up before — and I have to respectfully disagree with you. Indeed, I’m all for the English-language dubbing of foreign-language animated features. First off: We’re talking about movies in which the “actors” (animated characters) have already been dubbed by someone else, so what’s the big deal? If I see The Cat Returns, it’s not like I’d hear a real freakin’ cat talk in the original Japanese verion, right? (Insert joke about a cat meowing with a Japanese accent here.) Also: It would seem to me that subtitles, however elegant, would distract from the beautiful animated imagery. I admit that you could complain about the latter in many live-action foreign-language films, too. But — and maybe this just is the way I’m hard-wired — I accept dubbing as a convention in live-action features. For animated features, I feel like it’s not a necessity.
I agree that “Funeral” is a sizable hit, Mary. Not sure what SG’s expectations were, but $40-million for a non-Tyler Perry “urban” comedy seems about right.
“Dr. Parnassus” opened in my neck of the woods this January, but “Chloe” didn’t. While the Egoyan certainly played in more theaters than the usual SPC fare (what are we comparing it with,
though? “A Prophet”?), it was hardly a saturation break by any stretch of the imagination.
Btw, I commented on the surprisingly sturdy legs evinced by the largely unheralded “City Island” last weekend, but nobody took notice. I still think it has an outside chance of surpassing “Greenberg” thanks to positive w.o.m. Makes me wonder what a more savvy distributer might have done with it.
The big story of the weekend isn’t “Iron Man 2,” but the complete and utter failure of “Babies.” Considering Focus’ relentlessly hard-sell marketing campaign, that’s gotta sting.
I think the last time they so completely misjudged the (wide-ish) appeal of one of their films may have been “Hamlet 2.”
And I totally agree with Joe about the dubbing of foreign language ‘toons. What’s the crime?
There’s nothing more distracting than having to read subtitles while watching, say, a Miyazaki film where you’re trying to focus on the movie’s lush, trippy visuals.
Hi my name is John Doe, I work at Studio X. I am going to post here under my own name discussing Studio X’s budgets and box-office figures all time okay? I’m also going to mention Studio X every time I post.
Sounds like a good idea, right? Studios love that, don’t they?
Also I am an Asian woman.
— John Doe, Studio X.
Hey today my boss let me have a copy of our company’s figures. Anyone wanna see?
— Lexchan.
Focus obviously thought “Babies” would do better than that, but I don’t know about “failure?” And I wonder if the estimates are under-guessing on the Mother’s Day bump it could be in line for.
Oh, and my earlier point was that the vast majority of “Ponyo”‘s business here was not in a foreign language, so it’s not a “foreign language” film. Foreign? Sure.
Anyone who goes to see BABIES should be arrested and have to appear before a WAR TRIBUNAL.
Also: America should take a cue from China and LIMIT PREGNANCIES and BIRTHS.
And NO ONE should be allowed to have children before age 33. It would eliminate all the STUPID PEOPLE having kids because they’ve never heard of birth control.
RELIGION and FAMILIES should be BANNED.
They are the root of all evil.
PONYO should be banned too, as well as all ANIME and Japanese animation.
Actually everything from Japan except their lesbian slobber-kiss videos should be banned.
Asian cinema blows. AMERICA NUMBER ONE.
— Sergeant Merserve
LexG: My man, even I don’t get that drunk this early on a Sunday. And mind you, I’m Irish, and this is a holiday when I often get profoundly depressed. Lighten up, dude.
Stone-cold sober. When the drinking kicks in in six hours, this mood is going to go from bad to suicidal.
Life is bullshit, everyone sucks. Fuck the world.
I haven’t had one happy day in my entire life.
My only wish is that EVERYONE ELSE would be as miserable as I am. The only awesome thing I can do is bring everyone down with me.
Everyone on earth is SCUM. LIFE SUCKS DICK.
I am in SUCH A BAD MOOD I might go to the movies to take my mind off suicide.
I NEED TO KNOW AND YOU BETTER NOT LIE:
Do they show this chick’s vag tat in GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO or am I wasting my money if I sit there for three hours and they’re no money shot of this tattoo.
If they don’t show it, or at least show the chick’s feet, I am going to DEMAND MY MONEY BACK.
Am I going to like this “bisexual asperberger’s hacker chick that CAREY MULLIGAN might play,” or is she some stupid foreign chick with NO CHARISMA?
BONER: YES OR NO. I will hold all COMERS to they answer,
Dear David:
Your near-infinite indulgence of this sad individual’s mental illness is not charming.
Sincerely,
Jeff McMahon
He doesn’t indulge shit, douchebag.
I’d all but guarantee he’s already issued the pleading STOP THIS SHIT emails. Dude’s as sick of my antics as you are and at this point doesn’t like me any more than you do.
But that’s okay, I am hated THE WORLD OVER and haven’t spoken to another human being in a week and have been drunk for 9 consecutive days YEP YEP.
If I could just get some vag I would be better.
Wait, LexG: How could you be drunk for 9 consecutive days when you were stone cold sober at 1:10 PM?
@David Poland….”Furry Vengeance” is artificially inflated this week by preview screenings for “Letters for Juliet.” The film probably fell by over 50% in reality. Always look at preview screening weekends carefully…it’s an excuse to studios to prop up disappointing results.
@Joe and movieman…yeah I don’t disagree on animation usually…but I think the casting of Noah Cyrus and one of the JoBros was just too much for me in this case. Good for them if they did a good job but it seemed like a real clashing of brands, that Disney was looking to advance the careers of its stars possibly at the expense of the best animator alive.
LETTERS FOR JULIET? YAAAAAAAY
SEYFRIED = SOOOOO HOT. They had a standee of that up in the lobby the other day with a life-size SEYFRIED in a LITTLE OUTFIT. I totally want it for my living room so I can make out with it.
@EthanG: Actually, to the company’s credit, Disney has cast a fairly wide net while getting people to re-dub Japanese toons. For Morita’s The Cat Returns, for example, they got Anne Hathaway, Cary Elwes, Peter Boyle and Elliott Gould. And for Miyazaki’s Porco Rosso — Michael Keaton, Kimberly Williams, Brad Garrett and David Ogden Stiers.
My only problem with the Miyazaki dubs is even with the nice, diverse casts, the characters kind of sound the same. The parent characters no matter who they’re played by sound the same (Tina Fey in Ponyo being an exception), when the main characters are children or teens, they almost have the exact same tone of voice (You could almost switch Dakota Fanning in Spirited Away and the little Cyrus sister in Ponyo and nobody would be able to tell the difference). Maybe it’s just my ears. Other than that, good work, the ear bleeding changed song at the end of Ponyo aside.
DAKOTA FANNING?
HOT.
People comparing the IRON MAN 2 and DARK KNIGHT openings and branding IM2 as a “disappointment” because it “only” made $140 this weekend neglect to mention that there’s a 500 lb. elephant in the room that makes comapring the two a textbook case of apples and oranges: namely, THE STAR OF IRON MAN 2 DIDN’T DIE IN A TRAGIC JAMES DEAN MANNER SIX MONTHS BEFORE THE OPENING. The magnitude of TDK’s record opening is solely attributable to that fact. WIthout Ledger’s death, it probably would have opened at $80-90M, tops.
IRON MAN 1 did 50% more domestic and inspired much more repeat business and audience passion than the cold, functional BATMAN BEGINS. Ledger’s death, much more than audience love of the first film, is the thing that created the hysteria and “must-see” status of TDK before its release and made it an event as opposed to “just another comic book sequel” (and that’s not taking anything away from TDK — obviously, the fact that the movie totally delivered and improved upon the original is the thing that gave it the legs and word-of-mouth to build a good multiple off that stellar opening).
Thoughts?
Dietcock: Can’t say I entirely disagree.
I somewhat agree. However, they also had the biggest and most recognizable villain in the series. No matter who played The Joker it was going to be a draw. And the Ledger story was huge, but James Dean was a much bigger public figure than Ledger, so I don’t think that’s entirely fair either.
If Batman 3 does 140 it will be considered a disappointment (but it won’t).
While I’ll concede that Ledger’s death may have pushed it over the top on its opening weekend, The Dark Knight would have opened pretty high up on the all-time list regardless. It’s Batman vs. The Joker, which is arguably the most iconic battle in modern literature. And yes, lots of people unexpectedly loved Batman Begins, and it’s not nearly as cold or brooding as its reputation implies (it’s actually the rare Chris Nolan film that is genuinely optimistic about humanity’s ability to not be schmucks to each other). People were vary of Batman Begins because they didn’t get why we were getting more Batman films after Batman & Robin. Batman films that are expected to be good have always opened huge. Hell, even the dreaded Batman & Robin opened with $43 million back in 1997, which was one of the top opening weekends (fifth-biggest, I think?) of all time back then. You could certainly argue that the film merely would have opened between Pirates 2 and Spider-Man 3 had Ledger not died, but a critically-acclaimed, stylish-looking Batman film involving a splashy appearance by The Joker was always going to open like gangbusters.
Ledger was far more talented than James Dean. I guess I am one of the few people who, while first watching TDK at the midnight screening I attended, completely forgot the man was dead and just relished in his perf and in the overall greatness of the pic.
Of course, we’re never going to know. Like, will we ever know whether Pearl Harbor would have made more money — and maybe gotten more favorable press — had it opened during the holiday season after 9/11, rather than the summer before? Even if you absolutely hate the film — don’t you think attitudes toward it might have been colored by public sentiment with just a seven-month difference in its release?
According to Hollywood Reporter, Focus had expected “Babies” to have $1.5 million opening weekend, so it looks like the film opens just fine.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/film/news/e3i51f95541d351a9e9a1d062a1755b0913
Ledger was more talented, but he wasn’t “new” like Dean was. I don’t think people had the same connection to Ledger.
I’ve said for years that, had Pearl Harbor opened in November 01 instead of May 01, it would have toppled the domestic gross of Titanic. Many critics would have been a little kinder (ALA – World Trader Center), the right-wing media would have pounced on anyone famous who criticized it, and it would have become some kind of ‘national duty’ to see the film at least once. Among other things, tbare-bones DVD (subtitled “Two-Disc 60th Anniversary Commemorative Edition”) sold astoundingly well in December 01, despite the fact that the film was relatively unloved (sure, plenty of general moviegoers liked it, but no one loved it) and all of the techies knew that a four-disc R-rated version was being prepped. You’re right Joe, we’ll never know regarding these hypotheticals, but it’s always been a hunch of mine.
re: james dean, i see these ledger/dean comparisons from time to time, and i think it’s difficult to understand the impact james d. had on the movie audience of his era, the dean phenom being so sudden, powerful and over tragically fast.
from a personal perspective, i clearly remember having a conversation about dean with my mum, trying to understand just why he was such an icon from a first-hand observer. she told me about going to see ‘east of eden’ with her family when she was a teen and how dean’s ‘cal trask’ just crushed her soul and how she had never seen anything like him – completely mesmerising and heartbreaking – and that was it, he stole her heart — and then of course as sensitive bad-boy jim with natalie wood in RW/OAC she was completely gaga obsessed in head-over-heals-moviestar-love with dean, as were all her friends. and then he was dead. she told me she didn’t see him as jett in ‘giant’ for ages because her broken heart couldn’t take it (eventually she did, of course). so there you go. it was a different era and i’m not sure dean’s impact and icon status really equates to any actor today, or ever will. also, i think saying ‘ledger was far more talented than dean’ is a bit of a stretch.
“I’ve said for years that, had Pearl Harbor opened in November 01 instead of May 01, it would have toppled the domestic gross of Titanic.”
good grief, N O T
PH is a piece of mediocre, saccharin-directed cheeseball over-dramatic clap trap directed by a man who wouldn’t know how to elicit a convincing perf or portray a complex human emotion if his mother’s life depended on it, and that movie had about as much chance of striking a nerve the size of titanic’s as a dust bunny does in clogging up the vacuum cleaner
Christ, here we go again, Loudmouth Leah getting her swerve on and ranting about Bay. Can you just link to any one of a trillion previous threads and just add the words “See, this” to save us the eyesore boredom of your all-lowercase vodka-drenched mania?
PEARL HARBOR is a masterpiece in the exact same way TITANIC is a masterpiece. Their faults are each other’s, only Bay has a better eye and better colors. That you jill off to one but act like the other is offensive to your very core says less about the aesthetics of EITHER MOVIE and more about your dangerously scary rabid-mouthed one-sided love affair with “Big Jim.”
BIG JIM who NO DOUBT fucking LOVES Michael Bay and HANGS OUT WITH HIM and GIVES HIM TIPS and COMPETES WITH HIM IN A SPIRIT OF GOOD-NATURED GLEE. They are FRIENDS AND EQUALS.
GET THE DICK.
The Heath Ledger thing is mythology.
Batman, as a franchise, has a history of breaking box office records. Batman & Robin poisoned the well. Batman Begins was a little slow at the box office for a quality Batman film, but everyone seems to have seen it on cable and DVD if they hadn’t seen it in theaters and it was very well liked. That opened the door for a Batman-like opening record for Dark Knight.
And if you look at the Dark Knight marketing, it is a pure Burton Batman sell… at times down to the same lines. Shaded heads against blue-black, etc.
Anyway…
There is no real comparison between the built-in for Iron Man and the built-in for Batman or the other mega-comic franchise, Spider-Man. Iron Man has done great, but not in the same ballpark as the other two.
The smart comparison for Iron Man is Transformers, with the sequel opening 35% better than the first domestically and grossing 26% more domestically, 11% better internationally… 18% more total worldwide.
SO, Iron Man 2 is up 36% on opening weekend domestically. So far so good.
Is Iron Man 2 heading to a Trannys2-like sequel growth to $690 million worldwide total?
ALSO – I don’t think you quite get his point, Lean… or maybe you do. But as a response to 9/11, would Pearl Harbor have been bigger?
Actually, I think Disney would have been unlikely to release the film before the summer of 2002 if they had a Fall 2001 release date. Too on the nose… might look like they were pandering.
Also, if you look at the Black Hawk Down numbers, I don’t think it supports your theory either, Scott.
Regardless, the idea that Pearl Harbor would more than quadruple its business… not likely. But a bump up to the $700 million worldwide range from $450m? Sure… I’d buy that.
aw lex, i’m soooooooo unbelievably bored of you
(jim cameron farts in bay’s general direction after eating lots of mexican. the fact you think they hang out is kind of sweet in a completely delusional narcissistic psycho kind of way)
oh paging martin s. paging martin s. where is the ‘troll’ police when you need him?
“ALSO – I don’t think you quite get his point, Lean… or maybe you do. But as a response to 9/11, would Pearl Harbor have been bigger?”
was that a typo to me? yes, i did get his point, how stupid would i have to be not to? and i made mine. the quality of the movie (or lack thereof in PH’s case) is not immaterial to the equation
They totally hang out. Bay talks about it AT LENGTH on the Transformers 2 commentary.
EVERYBODY knows they are friends and good-natured competitors. EVERYBODY. Considering you apparently spent your life stalking and drooling over a 60-year-old Jim Henson lookalike with white Prince Valiant hair as if he was YOUR James Dean, I think you’d know this.
“Bay talks about it AT LENGTH on the Transformers 2 commentary.”
bay talks about it???!!! there’s your first mistake. BAY IS FULL OF SHIT. show me ANYWHERE that cameron confirms this delision. off you go, blowfly
bay talks about it???!!! there’s your first mistake. BAY IS FULL OF SHIT. show me ANYWHERE that cameron confirms this delision. off you go, blowfly
wow i have no idea how i did that when what i had typed in the window was:
er, delusion
ticketyboo
Heath Ledger is mythology? Because you say so?
While running the risk of being outed as a source (oh wait you did that in the last thread) I just have to say what a retarded statement. Ledger’s untimely demise was a HUGE factor in the gross- the looky loo factor was easily 100m.
LexG- why are you engaging with Leah? It’s like talking with Voynar- not worth it. Their eyes glaze over as you speak and they start to fantasize about a bag of Fritos.
Again, I raise the question: Black Hawk Down and several other war-themed movies opened within months of 9/11. Some were accused (by people who should have known better) of exploiting the 9/11 tragedy, even though they obviously had to have been green-lit months, if not years, earlier. But I’ll always be curious: What was in the air so many months earlier that got them green-lit? What were the decision makers thinking — or expecting?
Ledger’s death isn’t a mystery when it comes to the impact it had on The Dark Knight. WB did polling two months after the death, and found that interest in the film increased by 20% due to the media storm.
And there we are.
wow, don murphy actually got something right:
my eyes DO glaze over when idiots start blathering on and talking shit. kudos (but don is mistaking me for a fellow fatty re: the fritos. i’m skinny as a bean pole, probably because i eschew crapola and eat carrots instead. join me, tubbos)
I’m not one of those ‘Michael Bay is the devil’ sorts. The Rock is a terrific and thoughtful action picture, Bad Boys is a good B-movie that takes its violence very seriously, and The Island is completely engaging for the first 2/3. But Jim Cameron’s Titanic works as well as it does for the very reason that Michael Bay’s Pearl Harbor fails. Cameron’s film openly acknowledged that every single life lost on that ship was every bit as tragic and unfair as the eventual fates of our leads. When you asked people what part they cried at, it wasn’t anything to do with Jack or Rose. It was the mother reading to her children so that they might be asleep as they drowned in her arms. It was Victor Garber setting the clock just-right as the water came pouring in. It was the ship’s band leaving and then returning to play it out. Bay’s Pearl Harbor treated a massacre on US soil by an enemy nation as a huge inconvenience for our trio of star-crossed lovers (“…and then all of this happened!”).
Michael Bay IS the devil…in regards to horror movies.
Only 20%, Tofu?
Let’s talk about Kick-Ass and Snakes on a Plane and how awareness converts to box office.
Heath Ledger was on, literally, hundreds of covers between his death and the release of The Dark Knight. Only a 20% bump? Seems low. How many people bought tickets to see the dead guy? Is there a stat that WB got in market research?
Let’s have a single example – aside from this alleged Dark Knight one – where the box office allegedly went up in a significant way because someone died.
The Crow – $11.8m… #22 opening for the year
“the looky loo factor was easily 100m”… based on…
Again… my argument… because I say look at facts and not myths… is that Ledger’s passing contributed a lot less than his performance did. I don’t know a single person who has ever said that THEY actually paid to see the movie to see the dead guy.
Batman – #1 opener of all-time when it opened
Batman Returns – #2 opener of all-time when it opened, behind only Batman
Batman Forever – #5 opener of all-time when it opened, behind only Jurassic Park, The Lion King, and the two other Batman movies
Batman & Robin – #10 opener of all-time when it opened, behind only the aforementioned 5, plus Twister, Mission:Impossible, ID4, and Jurassic 2.
So… when The Dark Knight, which also got format benefit numbers, opened to $7 million more than Spider-Man 3, the only answer is Heath Ledger’s death?
Seriously. It’s a lovely sentiment. But until it happens to a movie that isn’t one of the 2 or 3 strongest franchises in movie history, I’m not buying. Impossible to sell that many tix without awareness, but a 20% jump in awareness can also lead to Gigli.
Of course Ledger’s death had something to do with that BO gross. How else do you explain the massive success of The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus?
Pardon the nitpicking, but corrections…
Batman Returns was the number one opener at the time. Its 1992 $45.6 million debut beat out Batman, which opened with $40 million back in 1989.
Batman Forever also broke the opening-weekend record. In 1995, it grossed $52 million in its Fri-Sun span, beating out Jurassic Park’s $47m debut from 1993.
Batman & Robin ($42 million) was number seven, behind Lost World ($72m), Batman Forever ($52m), Men in Black ($51m), ID4 ($50m), Jurassic Park ($47m), and M:I ($45m). Twister ($41m) and The Lion King ($40m) actually opened a bit lower than the derided fourth Batman film.
Yeah, I know… but in my defense, I grew up on the Batman franchise and its box office records. It’s the series that made me into a box office nerd.
DP:
I think the thrust of my argument is getting misinterpreted. Let me clarify. My main point was to say that it’s unfair to compare the openings of IM2 and TDK because the Ledger factor more or less made TDK a statistical anamoly.
I would argue that TDK didn’t open as big as it did solely on the merits of audience love for BATMAN BEGINS. BEGINS did a great job of re-booting a dormant franchise and set the seeds in terms of reverent tone for the triumph of TDK, but the audience love for BEGINS theatrical/post-theatrical was not enough on its own to make the opening weekend of TDK = 75% of BEGINS’ total domestic gross (Interestingly, the grosses for BEGINS and SUPERMAN RETURNS were identical, yet one was seen as a triumph and the other a failure). BEGINS didn’t strike the same chord of audience love that the first PIRATES or SPIDERMAN movies did, nor was it a case like MATRIX or AUSTIN POWERS, where the original movie underperformed theatrically but became a classic on DVD and delivered a huge demand for a sequel. Ledger is the wild card here that made TDK such a phenomenon and put all those asses in seats on the first weekend, at least initially (it certainly wasn’t Bale — and again, before you accuse me of being a TDK hater, the quality of the film itself is obviously what ultimately gave it its amazing legs). And yes, of course it’s his deservedly Oscar-winning performance and not just his death that made the movie so galvanizing. And I also agree that the trailer for the film (an almost shot-for-shot rip of the original Burton trailer) was stellar and created much of the excitement. But much of the eerie power of the trailer came from seeing those initial glimpses of Ledger’s performance so soon after his death and it became impossible after that to view Ledger’s performance outside of that context. So his death and his performance became intertwined. There were literally mass vigils at theatres opening weekend — are you trying to suggest that would have happened anyway had Ledger survived?
This is dorky, but indulge me. In my mind, the best way to view boxoffice is in terms of geometry (not dissimilar to your focus on multiples): Imagine that y represents weekend performance and x represents cumulative b.o. Your opening weekend is your y-axis intercept (b), word of mouth provides your slope (m) and the final tally is where that slope crosses the x-axis. Money, marketing, audience goodwil, rabid fanbases and hype can push you high up on the y-axis initially, but if your word of mouth “slope” is steep, you’re still fucked (c.f. GODZILLA, HULK and the MATRIX sequels). If a movie “delivers” and you combine a high y-axis intercept with a gentle slope, the sky’s the limit. So, in mathematical terms. TDK earned its slope on its own merits, but the Ledger factor gave it a much higher y-axis intercept starting point than it ordinarily would have had (still plenty high, btw, just not record shattering). Do you agree on that front at least?
Interest and awareness are two different factors.
THE MATRIX did not underperform. It was easily over $150 Million just in the U.S. and was something of a surprise hit (as a spring movie release).
That being said, your Ledger point seems reasonable.
Che: You’re right. Poor wording on my part. It made $170M+. It also had some of the best legs of all time, making more than 6x its opening weekend. What I meant was that it was a movie that grossed less than one would think offhand, given its staggering popularity and “long tail.” It also made almost 2x foreign what it made domestic and the first sequel grossed what the entire run of the first one did in just over a week. I was using it as an example of a movie where the overwhelming love of the first one made people psyched to see the second. People may have been psyched to see TDK, but it wasn’t because people were passionate about the first film in this sort of manner.
“I don’t know a single person who has ever said that THEY actually paid to see the movie to see the dead guy.”
David, this is as meaningless a statement as you’ve ever posted. Hey, I don’t know a single person who has ever said that THEY actually tuned in to Saturday Night Live a few weeks back to see Justin Bieber. But you know what? I kinda-sorta suspect there are people I don’t know who did.
Also the fact that we’re actually pretty shit at accurately explaining the causes of our own behaviour.
Tell me why you put one shoe on before the other this morning.
Foamy never makes sense.
Also makes Triple Option sound like Kid Dyn-O-Mite Walker.
What is I:M2?
It’s true, I never make sense.
Here’s an extended anecdote about why people are crap at explaining why they did something.
One particular luxury car dealer network – nothing on their lots under $50k – decided that they wanted to see if they could up their sales. So, they did the obvious thing and did a survey of their past customers and asked them “What was the most important thing when you bought a car from us?”.
The reply came back consistently: “We wanted to get a good deal”. These were people who made buckets of money and prided themselves on their business skills, so that seemed a fair comment.
So the dealers network instituted systems to help the salespeople offer better deals – more extensive credit checks, financial analysts to help predict which industries were booming and which were likely to bust (and from that, which executives might be at risk of defaulting on their payments). The result was they managed to knock at least 5% off their offers across the board through better financial risk management.
Their sales went down while their costs went up.
This didn’t make sense from what their customers had told them, so they decided to do an internal review to see if there was any difference between what the more successful dealers did and what their less successful dealers did.
They found out that those who made the most sales took the basic information from the customers, and handed it over to the office staff to do the checks while they showed the customers around the lot. The ones who sold less cars took the customer around the lot, and then took the customer back to the office to go through the checks together. It was the convenience that mattered.
So, the dealer network threw out all the expensive financial risk systems and went back to previous pricing – and instituted that they took their customers’ drivers licenses when they walked through the door so all the paperwork was ready to go when they had finished walking around the lot. Sales jumped up 20% over where they had been before any changes were made.
The kicker? While “Getting a good deal” was consistently the most important factor according to previous customers, “convenience” was almost never mentioned.
Just because you “don’t know a single person who has ever said that THEY actually paid to see the movie to see the dead guy” doesn’t mean it wasn’t a critical factor.
We’re shit at explaining why we put our right shoe on before our left. We’re shit at explaining why we bought this car instead of that car. And we’re shit at explaining why we paid to see one movie and not another.
Nobody went to see Heath Ledger as the Joker. They went to see The Joker.
“Nobody went to see Heath Ledger as the Joker. They went to see The Joker.”
Not for the first time, I suggest it’s a very bad idea to use the terms “Nobody” and “Everybody” on this blog. Because, really, when you do say it — you’re almost certainly wrong.
Okay, Joe, how about “virtually everybody?”
The Dark Knight trailer was NOT a shot-for-shot remake of the first Tim Burton Batman trailer.
1989 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AdEHOta-Uc
2008 – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aT7lVb1VfH4
Fake mash –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCOl9v0b0zM
Sure, if you do a personal mash-up, picking and choosing footage of the Burton picture, you can pretend they are similar, but the two trailers are nothing alike from a production or conceptual level.
Ah, Scott beat me to it. I was just gonna say it looks like someone got fooled by a fan-made mashup vid.
“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” would have had a US gross over $10M had it been rated. Music Box Films never submitted it to the MPAA for a rating — and certain theaters will not play an unrated picture.
@Hunter: Preferable. Not perfect, but preferable. And I must respectfully disagree with your basic assertion: I think quite a few people — maybe not millions, or even tens of thousand, but certainly thousands — did go see The Dark Knight because of the curiosity factor. Heath Ledger could have been playing Egghead or The Mad Hatter, and they still would have bought tickets. Sort of like how, decades ago, people went to see Raintree County just to see if they could see how badly Montgomery Clift messed himself up in his auto accident during filming.
Chucky- Certain theaters will not play a foriegn language film. I don’t see why you think multiplexes want these limited release films. A majority of filmgoers do not read reviews,trades etc., they decide what they want to see based on the commercials during Dancing with the stars. Without that marketing commitment the bigger exhibitors do not want to risk the screen space. Dragon Tatoo is doing remarkably strong business, two months in with a decent per screen average, and a weekend drop of less than 20% it should slide pass $10 million without a problem.
I don’t see why you constantly seem to think that indie fare and foreign language films are failing simply because they have a different distribution strategy than Marley and Me.
@Hcat: Chucky actually may have a point…. Excuse me while I laugh for a few minutes…OK, I’m back… Chucky may have a point with this particular film. Girl With the Dragon Tattoo is getting coverage in various mainstream newspapers and magazines because of the book trilogy. (The final book hits the U.S. this week, I think.) If the movie were accessible in some other markets, it’s possible that some people who normally avoid subtitles like Superman avoids Kryptonite might be curious enough to buy tickets.
And to add to Scott’s opening weekend nitpicking, Begins was a Wed release which would have deflated the opening weekend numbers. So while TDK was a 3x better opening, Begins opening was watered down a bit.
Joe: The popularity of the books is the reason its done 6 million already. Otherwise it would have been just some foriegn thriller like Crimson Rivers or Memory of a Killer that do little to no business. I am sure that it will play in all the major markets which I would expect to have some independent theater who does care about the MPAA rating.
Also the smaller markets would mean more prints which would diminish the profit for this tiny distributor. Ms. Henderson in Podunk OK might be chomping at the bit to see this but Music Box probably feels it is not worth the expense to reach her. They are turning this around on DVD rather quickly (July 6) so they can build on the buzz and release the rest of the trilogy by the fall. I know confronting Chucky is useless but he is constantly wrong on the economics of limited release films where you can sometimes be more profitable by being seen by less people.
And one more thought on MPAA rating for Dragon Tatoo. Isn’t it a rather intense graphic film? Surely some of the people who were willing to give it a try because they heard of the books or read a magazine article might be turned off by statement Rated R for Torture, Murder, Language, Adult Situations or whatever is in the movie. I just rented Cloud 9 (another Music Box non-rated release) last week and while I enjoyed it quite a bit I might not have gave it a try if I saw RATED R FOR NEAR CONSTANT GERIATRIC NUDITY.
I take your point, Joe, but my point of view is based on a recent discussion at a wedding, where the Dsrk Knight came up in conversation somehow, and the people I was talking with, of all ages, who were regular, casual moviegoerers, couldn’t remember the name of the actor who played the Joker.
Hunter – So when you previously said “Nobody went to see Ledger as the Joker” you meant Nobody at table six.
Scott, I’m pretty sure your link isn’t the very first Batman trailer. It’s similar, but the first teaser didn’t have any of the Batwing shots.
Hcat: Good God, no. I work the room. Have cocktail, will travel.
re: “Babies”‘ surprising Mother’s Day bump. Toldjaso.
It’s the trailer that has always been advertised ‘the first’ trailer, online and on the DVD sets from the first film. Alas, I don’t remember what I saw back when I was nine years old.
Since NO ONE ANSWERED MY QUESTION, I googled a bunch of pics of NOOMIE RAPACE or whatever her name is, and SHE ISN’T HOT AT ALL.
I thought everyone was going to see DRAGON TATTOO ’cause it had some smokin’ bisexual chick in it, but she’s all old and haggard looking. THAT’S who they’re gonna replace with Carey or Kristen?
Talk about trading UP. Foreign movies suck.
“The popularity of the books is the reason its done 6 million already. Otherwise it would have been just some foriegn thriller like Crimson Rivers or Memory of a Killer that do little to no business.”
Wasn’t Crimson Rivers based on a very popular book? I guess it might’ve been one of those Tintin things where it’s very popular in Europe and hardly registers as a blip in the U.S., and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo has a little more recognition.
Y’all missed my point. National chain Cinemark has a corporate policy not to play unrated pictures. That policy kept “Dragon Tattoo” out of megaplexes in Boulder and Evanston. Some snooty arthouses in Pennsylvania self-applied an R rating but the MPAA does not recognize that.
If getting arty pictures out to more people means submitted an unrated film for an MPAA rating, so be it.
the Pearl Harbour discussion…
I agree. Had it opened later in the Fall, I’m sure it would have done better.
Scott- PERFECT analogy of why Titanic is Titanic, and why Pearl Harbor is what it is.
I’d also add that I think Black Hawk Down’s box office was surely boosted by it’s post 9/11 release. $108M domestic. With no stars and a R-rating, and how many flipping DVD versions it’s had.
Regarding the MPAA rating discussion: I have been told on more than one occasion by indie filmmakers that it’s actually quite expensive to have a film rated by the MPAA board. Anybody know anything abut that? Because even if we’re talking five figures, well, that might be viewed as an unjustifiable expense by a smaller distributor.
Iron Man 2’s actual weekend gross is $128M. Pathetic! I declare it a flop now.
Also, how much would it cost to re-edit, even in a minor way? Because I’m not so sure the version of “Dragon Tattoo” being shown could have gotten an R.
“if you look at the Dark Knight marketing, it is a pure Burton Batman sell… at times down to the same lines. Shaded heads against blue-black, etc.”
Is there some reference to “shot-by-shot” in that sentence?
There is plenty of similarity… most of all in the outdoor and theatrical posters, as I have mentioned before.
Still waiting on someone offering up another example of a significant bump to go see a dead celebrity…
I have many problems with your axis offering, diet, as while the idea feels right with much of it, the fact is that the vast majority of films are not significantly affected by word of mouth in theatrical. If the downside is 10% from word of mouth in most cases, how can the sky be the limit on the upside?
That said, the conceptual problem in this case is a continuing unwillingness to adjust for BATMAN. Not for Batman Begins. I agree that the quality of Batman Begins did not create a 3x increase in the next film’s opening or gross.
The relative weakness of Batman Begins was much more an anomaly than the success of Dark Knight.
And Joe… kind of unnecessarily evasive there. How many people do you know who tuned into Saturday Night Live to see Betty White? A lot more than Justin Bieber might you admit?
There are many ideas these days, like Heath Ledger being responsible for Dark Knight’s number, that simply don’t make a lot of sense in the rational world. It usually comes out of some niche group and gets picked up by the media. In the movie world, this includes, “Dramas don’t sell.” “No one wants to go to the movie theaters,” and “3D will save the studios.”
But taking your point… again… I ask… let’s hear the example of even a $20 million bump from a dead Star of any other movie?
And Foamy… I assume you are making my point for me. People are, indeed, shite at knowing how they are being motivated to spend time and money. This is why Mark Cuban smartly noted, “NEVER listen to your customers.”
People went, in large part, to see Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight as they went to see Nicholson in Batman… not just to see the men… both of whom have had plenty of flops… but to see that crazy guy who gets a truck to flip or hangs his head out of the window or because they can’t wait to get a load of Him.
The only examples I can think of, sitting here, that were box office driven by non-movie issues in a major positive way are smaller movies… the biggest of which was Fahrenheit 9/11. And even then, it was not just Bush bashing that drew a crowd, but how Moore bashed him.
“And Joe… kind of unnecessarily evasive there. How many people do you know who tuned into Saturday Night Live to see Betty White? A lot more than Justin Bieber might you admit?”
Sorry, David: Your jiu-jitsu only works on the youngsters. Worse, it’s totally irrelevant. Of course more people likely tuned in for Betty White — me being one of them. But that doesn’t change your “I don’t know a single person who…” argument from being the weak tea that it is. Really, it’s the sort of thing you often mock people for on this site. There are more things in heaven and earth than in your circle of acquaintances.
“There are more things in heaven and earth than in your circle of acquaintances.”
REALLY?!?!?!
I don’t believe that. My circle represents the only people who have or are ever allowed to have opinions or to represent truth. How could you even question that?!?!?!
You know that saw you keep repeating about the stakes being so small? Keep repeating it.
Bruce Lee. ENTER THE DRAGON. Nuff said.
Umm, Heath Ledger couldn’t open a movie when he was alive, what makes you guys so sure people wanted to rush out to see him once he was gone? Survivor’s guilt? It was seven months since the time he’d passed until the film opened. Even the prods of MJ’s This Is It knew you couldn’t let a story like that go cold. (meaning effect would be gone not WB needed to move date). Seven days and a relatively unknown commodity, yeah, I
Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus: $7.7 million total domestic gross.
hang it all, re: the ‘dead guy bump’, i was just going to say ‘enter the dragon’. darn you christian and your fellow bruce lee fandom
and just to clarify from yesterday because perhaps i didn’t make myself clear, at no time did i imply ‘pearl harbor’ would not have made a bit more money if it had been released after 9/11, that’s possible; my point was specifically that scott’s statement, “I’ve said for years that, had Pearl Harbor opened in November 01 instead of May 01, it would have toppled the domestic gross of Titanic.” – a HUGE call going from under 200mil to over 600mil – is bollocks.
a major terrorist attack does many things to a country and to the world, but causing an outbreak of bad taste isn’t one of them. ‘titanic’, for a myriad of reasons depending on who you ask, touched a serious nerve with audiences. PH did not. for a disaster movie it’s mediocre, shallow, overwrought, saccharin-sentimental, veneer-thin pretty with no soul and very little urgency, stakes, suspense, grit, momentum or tension, nobody to connect with or root for because the characters are so one note and thinly drawn, the lovers have no chemistry or personality for that matter, and certainly there is nothing in the film so compelling as to prompt people to see it again and again, which is required to drive a movie to ‘phenomenon’ status culturally and financially.
had PH been released at the end of the year it would STILL be the same lame movie, and the idea that audiences would suddenly be duped into seeing it for more than it is and en mass with repeat viewings because of a terrorist attack, to the extent that it would have become the highest grossing movie in US (domestic) history – or even close for that matter – is without merit or precedent.
also, saying that nobody cried for the protagonists jack and rose – when jack sank into the water or when old rose threw the gem into the ocean or when their ‘ghosts’ are reunited on the restored ship – and only for the extras is just plain silly. the small, human moments making the disaster urgent and compelling are hugely important, and what sets apart the understanding of film of a talented director from a mediocre one, but the puppy love story IS the driving heart of the film and where emotional connection either lives or dies for the movie’s viewers
Brandon Lee. THE CROW.
Ah, David. Like a maladroit poker player, you have an obvious tell: When you know you’re losing the argument, you start getting pissy. How sad. And yet, at the same time, how funny. The stakes are indeed really small.
Does anyone else “hear” leahnz’s posts in a really shrill, annoying Australian accent?
I know I do, and it gives me a headache.
‘Brandon Lee. THE CROW.”
yes. how sad the lovely, dead lee men are leading the ‘dead man bump’ hit parade
This just in:
Leah’s poor kids have rented an apartment two towns away to save their eardrums.
Leah’s too drunk to notice.
No, that’s just you, Lex. Limp Bizkit will do that.
Again: We’ll never know for certain. But consider this: Never mind the effect on one or two movies, would James Dean and Marilyn Monroe be the pop culture icons they are today if they had lived 30 or 40 more years, and died natural deaths? (I’ve often said that Dean might have wound up being the second lead in a TV cop show, while Monroe could have starred in a nighttime soap opera.) And BTW: I would wager that, yes, quite a few people went to go see Rebel Without a Cause when it opened in 1955 because Dean had died less than one month earlier.
joe, JD died before RW/OAC? for some reason i thought it was ‘giant’, i must be misremembering my mother’s dean tale of her youth. it must have been ‘rebel’ she couldn’t bear to watch after his death and not ‘giant’ as i thought, that wouldn’t make sense
Hey Joe, last time I personally laid out cash to have a movie rated it wasn’t that expensive, just like five grand. I know people who have paid two grand. Depends on the cost of the movie, I think one I was involved with paid twenty. They go by negative cost…I think the majors pay like 60 grand or more? Even a few thousand can be a lot for real small indies.
Joe, you’re right about Dean and Monroe. Actors who make a huge impression with a few great roles in hits and then die have that legend that follows them. Like Bruce Lee…if he were still around he’s probably be making terrible movies like Jackie Chan that no one cares about. Good for his legend that he died on top. Bad for him since he died.
Also, TDK had starred a dead Health Ledger as Egghead, it would have made Batman Begins money. TDK had so many things going for it, it HAD to be a huge movie. Perfect most famous villain, perfect casting of same, a good serious Batman movie with plenty of praise coming after a liked reboot…it was going to be huge.
But as DP said, TDK made only 7 million more than SPiderman 3…which if you’re a scientist and can figure things out, means that a dead Health Ledger means exactly 7 million dollars worth of revenue.
The funny thing about Bruce Lee’s “death bounce” is… well, wait, that sounds awfully freakin’ crass on my part. But it should be noted that you get that bounce only once: Enter the Dragon was a big hit, but Game of Death didn’t make much of an impact. Maybe you could say — for more than one reason — the latter film was Lee’s Imaginarium.
Well, Game of Death was never truly finished though. However if it was, I have doubts that it would have been as big a hit. Seemed pretty weird.
Well, kinda-sorta like Imaginarium, Game of Death was a movie structured around an inconveniently dead star, with other actors “doubling” for him. Which reminds me: Would Bela Lugosi and Plan 9 from Outer Space qualify for this “death bounce” list?
Actually GAME OF DEATH was a global box office hit, particularly in Japan and Hong Kong, making more than ENTER THE DRAGON. I assume it did healthy business here since Lee-mania never went away despite the shoddy production. But Tom Bradley declared Bruce Lee Day when it opened and the theater was certainly packed when we saw it. Had it been a real Lee film it would have done boffo BO.
Well, I will freely admit this is purely anecdotal, so take it with several grains of salt. But as I recall, when Game of Death opened in my part of the world, it appeared in drive-ins and gone-to-seed urban theaters, not the upscale places where Enter the Dragon had opened just a few years earlier. And it didn’t stick around for long. So I’d always assumed it was not a big moneymaker. Of course, as Christian points out, it was a global hit, so maybe I shouldn’t judge it by how it opened in Louisiana.
And you should know Joe that drive-ins and grindhouse theaters made money in the 70’s…ask Corman and H.G. Lewis!
True enough, true enough. And come to think of it: Wasn’t there actually a Game of Death II?
To answer my own question:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0076709/
Lex: Rapace was 29 when TATTOO was shot–hardly old. She’s smokin’ hot in real life, and was likewise in the movie, though it was a completely different look. You’d have noticed this if you weren’t obsessed with children.
Joe: Yes, the MPAA charges to have movies rated. From $2500 for tiny independents to tens of thousands for big-budget films. The studios can afford this; most indies can’t.
Cadavra, get the dick.
SEYFRIED ON LENO OH MY GOD LOOK AT HERRRRRRR!!!!
SO. HOT. Actually looks skinnier or something, but in a good way. HOT. BOW TO HER. BOW. OH MY GOD.
I LOVE HER.
LETTERS FOR JULIET POWER.
LEX PREDICTION: 42 MILLION THIS WEEKEND.
BANK.
(On a side note, anyone ever notice she’s not as DEMURE in person though? She’s more CHLOE/ALPHA DOG edgy than DEMURE “Dear John” in interviews. I feel uncertain about this. It is a key reason why NO ONE can trump the K-STEW PERSONALITY, which is how ALL WOMEN need to act. DEMURE.)
“On a side note, anyone ever notice she’s not as DEMURE in person though? She’s more CHLOE/ALPHA DOG edgy than DEMURE ‘Dear John’ in interviews.”
Guessing that going through puberty as a child model will do that to a girl…
She just ate an oyster.
BONER.
Hey, what is the DEAL with that peroxided chef dude who looks like a fat Corey Feldman crossed with an extra fat Colin Farrell? Guy something? He was just on after SEYFIE and couldn’t keep his hands off her… Just realized last time he was on, he was on right after K-STEW and they did a skit to see who could empty a tissue box fastest.
Which, let me tell you, isn’t the first time K-STEW has emptied a tissue box.
ZING.
Anyway, how do you get to be THAT GUY? Big annoying loud obnoxious fat slob with like 80 TV shows, gets to go on talk shows with the hottest women in the world.
So depressing.
Don’t you other dudes WANT TO BE FAMOUS?
I cannot understand the lack of desire to be TOTALLY FAMOUS.
NOTHING in life is worth doing if other people aren’t watching you do it and getting jealous of you.
If you are going to continually ban me, please, let me know why.
Okay, now I am not banned? Nevermind. (moves away from the keyboard very slowly)
Clearly Titanic did so well because Billy Zane’s career died right after filming wrapped.