Friday Estimates By Salt-Free Klady
Inception will win the weekend… but only because Salt is looking soft. Inception will have the 5th best second weekend of the year and pretty much in range with 2 or 3 other titles. In other words, completely admirable and solid, but nothing to write headlines about. And I don’t expect much of a % jump over the weekend, which would normally reflect a bigger drop on Friday because it’s opening day, because of the Midnight screenings last Thursday.
$240m or so domestic is nothing but excellent, but it can be overstated. And now, it’s probably time to start thinking about the sequel, which could take the premise, make a less heady piece, and double the box office.
Back to the Salt mine… I think Sony got nervous when it looked at the tracking and decided to stop selling story and just sell Jolie running and shooting. Perhaps that is all they had to go with at that point. And if they were finding that the campaign wasn’t locking in, they had to go somewhere.
Perhaps the problem was that Ms. Jolie was being a bit precious about her availability. One 30 second killer clip and a few slots on TV might have flipped the switch. But instead of being at The View, Angie was at ComicCon on Thursday, pushing the one crowd already in pocket. Hmmm….
Ramona and Beezus… really? Did Fox mean for this film to leak out onto 2719 screens. Because it feels like it escaped, as opposed to being released. No doubt, I have not watched my share of Nickelodeon or Disney Channel this week. But what looks to be a sweet film, pretty much heading for the same niche as WB’s Flipped. due in 2 weeks, had less general presence on opening weekend than the Reiner film, two weeks out.
The Sorcerer’s Apprentice only gets scarier for Disney. It now looks like it won’t get to The Last Song‘s domestic gross. The only real option now – a cheap one – is to release 2 or the lengthy clips (the 6 minute variety) to try to get people surprised by what they missed. They’re past “giving it away.” So… throw it out there… nothing to lose now… and if they can get a parent or two amused, they could get to $70 million.
$380m domestic looms for Toy Story 3, the $400m mark assured over the course of the summer. It’s finally opening weekend in the UK, followed by France next weekend and Germany the weekend after. Those countries will likely push the film’s international gross over the $400 million mark as well, making it the 4th animated film in history to reach that mark That said, Shrek 2, Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs, and Finding Nemo‘s worldwide numbers, all over $268m, are likely beyond TS3’s grasp.
And with the 3D Bump… okay… yawn… we all get it…
Twilight: Eclipse is still slightly ahead of its predecessor, day-for-day, but is slowing faster. The concern now for Summit is that foreign may not match New Moon, which is unusual in successful sequels. Of course, every studio would love to grapple with that kind of problem. They get to make movies that are disliked by everyone except for the target audience, on a budget, which outgross Iron Man and its sequel worldwide. Unfortunately, the gravy train has only got two more stops before Summit has to go back to finding its first non-vamp $100m domestic grosser as a company.
Pretty strong opening day for the Orlando re-release. 140 people per theater took the time out to go see an 18-year-old arthouse classic that played, in its day, for eternity. Life During Wartime opened better, but that could just be 1000 people who still wear Dollhouse t-shirts and have been waiting on this release for a year already. Speaking of which… THAT would make a great revival about now. 15th anniversary next year… no new DVD in over a decade… Blu-ray launch… influential movie… I like this idea.
“And now, it’s probably time to start thinking about the sequel, which could take the premise, make a less heady piece, and double the box office.”
(clears throat)
GO. FUCK. YOURSELF.
I’m little disappointed that “Salt” may opens less than “Wanted”, since “Salt” is a more marketable PG-13 film and “Wanted” is a R-rated film.
It may be the reason why “Life During Wartime” opened well?
http://www.ifccenter.com/films/life-during-wartime/
Director Todd Solondz and star Ally Sheedy in person Fri at 6:55, 7:40, 9:05 & 9:55, Solondz and star Rich Pecci in person Sat at 6:55, 7:40, 9:05 & 9:55, Solondz in person Sun at 4:40!
I loved Inception, but a sequel cannot be likely and I would really not want it, anyway. And seriously, a truly adult sci-fi thriller (in a BRUTAL summer for action films and for adult films) grossing $250 million plus is not worth headlines? So Dave, I guess Inception is this summer’s Star Trek for you?
And in any other summer, I would think Salt’s opening would be middling, but this summer….it’s going to significantly out-open The A-Team and Knight and Day and I can see it having some legs – I think it’s a win. And Klady’s estimate is a full $2 million below what others are stating – that’s the difference between early ’30’s and high ’30’s for the weekend, big difference.
And wow, I put on Cool Runnings for my girls this morning, since it has been monsoon-like in Chicago and flooding everywhere – love that movie, really holds up. That was 17 years ago directed by Jon Turtletaub and it made $70 million – it will outgross Sorcerer’s Apprentice with a fraction of the hype and budget, amazing.
Welcome to the Dollhouse is a really good movie, too bad he hasn’t been able to do anything that’s close to that level.
How about this for a mindblowing stat….by the end of the weekend, “Despicable Me” will be Universal Studios’ biggest domestic hit since “Bourne 3″…three years ago(!).
It also is going to wind up as it’s biggest domestic non sequel/remake since “Bruce Almighty” in 2003!!! Kind of sad really….
Ethan, it’s kind of sad, but I would hope with basically year-round ad campaign building up for this thing, hyping it up to no end during shows, that have completely non-kid audiences, in NBC for months…..Universal earned this payoff. $70 million for the production is a bargain, but I have to think they spent that much on marketing. Who knows?
Funny. And kinda fair, Crow.
Perhaps what I meant to say, a version of Inception that was as smart as this one wants to be and therefore, less encumbered by pretension.
And that comes from someone who likes the movie.
My point is, you can do very smart… but it can also be clean enough to be truly forever… like The Matrix.
Geoff… I think it is an obvious premise that can be repeated and even be improved… like Bourne 1 to Bourne 2. There would be no Greengrass Bourne without Liman making everyone insane on the first one. It was Liman that broke the mold. But it was Greengrass that made the machine pretty close to perfect for what it was.
I liked all three Bourne movies, but honestly feel the premise and story was pretty much played out halfway during the second movie.
There is obviously a world of possibilities with more Inceptions, especially developing the team, but I just don’t see it – the ending was perfect and to have to explain it with another movie would be a bit of a cheat.
No sequel to Inception, thank you very much. It’s a terrific standalone film. We had enough of that sort of thing with the godawful sequels to The Matrix.
And one other thing, though I think it’s doubtful – any chance that Leo will get some Oscar recognition this year?
Both Inception and Shutter Island are in my top five for the year so far and even though I love both directors, I can honestly say his performances in both films are essential to their success as anything. It’s funny, even those who like Inception are somewhat critical of his work – it’s too similar to previous roles, too over-the-top, and I just don’t agree.
Was watching Last of the Mohicans the other day on cable – now, I love Daniel Day Lewis, but when is it not obvious how much he is “acting” and yet he gets a pass. Think of his most iconic roles – There Will Be Blood, My Left Foot, it’s always pretty obvious.
Leo does not portray subtle characters, but he delivers the goods – I’m sure a Golden Globe nomination is assured, but he deserves recognition.
Oh Cool Runnings. I will always remember that movie as the influence behind one of the more hilarious scandals to occur during my University years:
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/article/724659–how-a-halloween-getup-went-badly-wrong
David: For what it’s worth — I’d never even heard of Flipped until I saw a trailer for it today at the Dogs & Cats screening. I mean, I haven’t yet seen a poster for the movie. Whereas I started seeing posters for Ramona and Beezus weeks ago.
It’s “Cats and Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore” — and Mr. Le flip-flopped the creatures on Caturday of all days. MEOW!
The re-released Orlando? Wow. I love that movie. I doubt it comes to my hood but if it does, I am there in a minute. Absolutely wonderful movie with one of my favourite endings ever.
Now onto David, whose about the most effortless hater in the history of haterdom. He’s so smooth about his hate that it’s a pleasure to read someone with such contempt for a film and it’s director, constantly belittled it at every single point.
Oh yeah, GOD AWFUL MATRIX SEQUELS? Use the freakin Netflix, get the ultimate addition that has Cornell West on it, and get an education.
Dave, you are the master of passive agressive bias.
Inception will be #1 again, but only because salt is opening soft?
What kind if idiotic bullshit is that? Inception isnt holding well, salt is just falling below expectation? So any movie that holds the top spot for 2 weeks straight is not because of quality or interest, but because of the failures of competition?
Spin baby, spin. You manage to take a piss on inception and shit on salt in one sentence.
Anghus, let us not forget the way he treated TDK being the first movie in years holding multiple weekends. If Inception somehow manages to do this three weeks in a row, David’s response should be just as epic fail worthy as the one he made 2 years ago.
“I think Sony got nervous when it looked at the tracking and decided to stop selling story and just sell Jolie running and shooting. Perhaps that is all they had to go with at that point. And if they were finding that the campaign wasn’t locking in, they had to go somewhere.”
No part of your speculation is true, but keep trying, I guess.
I can always count on Anghus and IO for displaced rage.
Being #1 is not a terribly important stat. Salt did what it did. Inception did what it did. Inception did about what was expected. Salt under opened.
So yes, one movie underopening meant another was #1. Doesn’t make Inception’s 2nd weekend any better or worse… though some will make a big deal over the rank because they want to, not because it’s meaningful.
And thanks for the passive aggression, Grady.
No rage here broseph. Calling out bullshit is usually done with a smile on my face.
I don’t think many expected INCEPTION to do $40m+ its second weekend… and in fact, looking at the box-office predictions listed on MCN, there’s only one $40m+ guess, and even that will probably be low. And $240m domestic is lowballing — fairly significantly.
At worst, it looks like INCEPTION will hit around where STAR TREK ended up… and seriously, aside from some crazy hopeful fanboys, who really expected that? Definitely worthy of some headlines.
I think it’s safe to say that INCEPTION held better than expected, and SALT opened slightly softer than expected.
“I can always count on Anghus and IO for displaced rage.”
Displaced? Like water out of a bathtub or like migrants out of a country?
SSDD.
David: Is it possible that maybe, just maybe, some of your critics here — even the passive-aggressive ones — have a point? That on some subconscious level, you are trying to justify an initial judgment that may have been a bit faulty?
Speaking of faulty: Yeah, Chucky, I got the title billing wrong. On the other hand: I did use the ampersand, not the “and,” which is correct. So nayh-nyah-nyah. I got some passive-aggression for you.
Displaced rage? Displaced RAGE? HULK SMASH PUNY DAVID POLAND! SMASH! SMASH SMASH! WHAT JOE POSTED IS RIGHT AND HULK DON’T SMASH JOE! HE LOOKS LIKE SANTA CLAUS AND WEARS COWBOY HATS!
BTW: Math has never been my strong suit, so I may be wrong here, but: Am I mistaken, or did Khatta Meetha post TWICE the per screen average as Predators on Friday? I know: Apples to oranges and all that. But still…
As an impartial fella who hasn’t seen Inception and doesn’t plan to anytime soon (to allay bias), it looks very much to me like David’s desperately tried to find the negative in what’s a pretty damn positive second weekend hold.
I’m usually in his camp when it comes to situations like this, but for the life of me, I can’t see how his reporting of Inception’s performance is jiving with the reality of the situation.
It’s like my parents’ divorce up in this shit….
Snrub, go see Inception. COME ON! DO IT!
Uh… no, Joe.
What faulty judgment do you think I am justifying?
And Snrub… no matter how many times I write that the number is solid (“$240m or so domestic is nothing but excellent, but it can be overstated.”), somehow it is played as negative.
It’s completely positive. But it is not a starburst, which is how it is being treated in many media quarters. That is my point… and I think it’s 100% fair.
I like the movie, it’s doing very good business, it cost $200 million, it is being sold like a blockbuster not like it’s State of Play, and being #1 this weekend is a function of another film not doing enough business more than some important box office event.
As I wrote above, being #1 is not an important stat… but it is what the studios want for marketing purposes. Titanic was #1 for 15 weeks… Avatar 7… Dark Knight 4… Porky’s 8.
Am I sick of overhype by the media on the film? Absolutely. Have I written anything that was unfair about the film? Absolutely not.
David: As we say in New Orleans: Some people, what they don’t know, you can’t tell them. Go in peace.
Yeah the “Salt” claim seems to be based upon what looks like a bad estimate on Klady’s part. I don’t think 38 million can be characterized as soft. When’s the last time a female action movie opened this big? Charlie’s Angels?
Joe, yeah, you just summed that up so well. Seriously David, you never ever get when you are slighting things. It’s pretty freaking hilarious at this point because everyone who comes here on a daily basis, knows that you do this, but are seemingly the only one who has no idea that you do it.
Has anyone seen “The Switch”?
Does anyone know if it’s still opening on August 20th?
That’s just three weeks away, and I haven’t seen a single trailer (or TV spot), and nobody has breathed a word yet about either a screening or promo.
Did Miramax run out of money and shelve it?
That was one of the few summer comedies I was genuinely looking forward to.
I’m still trying to figure out why David keeps saying that Salt is underperforming this weekend. Based on what? Your opinion? The budget of the movie? The wild guesses of “box office experts?”
So at what point will you consider INCEPTION’s run to be impressive, David? Not merely solid, but impressive? Will it be when it grosses $30m in it’s third weekend? When it crosses $300 million?
Movieman:
There are posters up all over LA suddenly for it, with an August 20th release date.
I’m also wondering if it’s the first movie poster in history to feature its leading man mugging while brandishing (seriously) a cup of semen.
Also: You might want to dial your hopes way, way, WAY down.
Inception is going to end up a lot higher then $240 mil by the end of it’s run. It will be at about $140 mil by the end of this weekend and at about $200 mil by the end of next weekend. A weekend that will likely be somewhere between $30-35 mil.It should be at about $240 mil by the end of its fourth weekend. Inception will have IMAX screens exclusively until the end of August when Avatar returns followed by Labor Day weekend.Inception is headed to $300 mil right now the only question is how far past $300 mil it will go.
For some analysis on this 2nd week performance lets put that list that we were comparing Inception to on opening weekend.
Avatar: $77M
The Day After Tomorrow: $68M
Bruce Almighty: $67M
2012: $65M
Hancock: $62M
Signs: $60M
Now lets look at these flicks at their 2nd weekend mark/eventual gross.
Avatar: $212m/$749m
Bruce: $137m/$242m
Day after Tomorrow: $128m/$186m
2012: $108m/$166m
Hancock: $167m/$227m(this 2nd week gross includes $41m it got tue-thur prior to opening weekend on July 4th so 3 extra days of box office in this $167M figure.)
Signs: $117m/$227m
Inception: $142m est after 2 weekends.
So basically it beats everything besides Avatar, and didn’t have the benefit of a holiday weekend like Hancock. But Dave is in nothing-to-see-here mode.
As for this “I like the movie, it’s doing very good business, it cost $200 million, it is being sold like a blockbuster not like it’s State of Play, and being #1 this weekend is a function of another film not doing enough business more than some important box office event.”
Wasn’t this our argument for A Christmas Carol? it wasn’t being sold as some light Christmas tale with low expectations, it was sold as a blockbuster event with a blockbuster star, and a blockbuster director, ohhh much like Inception, but here we sit with Inception just two weeks out, without even the benefit of a well known story as its source material, already surpassing ACC’s entire box office run. And that’s not worthy Dave?
And as for this “and being #1 this weekend is a function of another film not doing enough business more than some important box office event.” Well shit Dave, maybe you should turn that around, maybe Salt didn’t do “enough” business because Inception continued so strong. And another thing, exactly what is “enough” business for Salt? Are you saying that $35M is disappointing for a female lead action thriller with no strong male lead and also from original source material, and going up against the 2nd week of the most talked about flick of the summer? It maybe a bit soft, but it still beats Knight & Day, The A Team, equals Robin Hood, and in terms of female leads, bests Sex & the City2. I’ll take it.
To put the end point on all this, Inception’s trajectory has it aiming toward being the 2nd/3rd largest box office gross from original source material. I know you don’t like to join the hype, (daily reports on Avatar b.o. notwithstanding) but it certainly deserves more than you are giving it Dave.
Interesting, Lex.
Somehow I was expecting a comedy by the “Blades of Glory” team starring Aniston and Bateman that was opening in late August to be to be a sweet, end-of-summer treat (kind of like “Extract,” another Miramax title, last year).
I’m now beginning to think they could be dumping it–only opening in a handful of cities, then segueing to dvd before Halloween.
Still haven’t seen a trailer (or the one-sheet you’re referring to), and the Cleveland ad rep claims they don’t know anything about a screening. Which could mean either it’s opening “cold” (sans advance screenings: rarely a good sign), or not at all in the northeastern Ohio market.
Sigh…here I go givin’ a fuck when it ain’t my turn to give a fuck.
Box office issues aside, Inception doesn’t work all that well, and Dave is absolutely right about the potential for a sequel to take the premise and do something more interesting with it. I thought the exact same thing while watching it. I’m surprised by the number of critics that are so desperate for a cerebral, adult-aimed film that they’re hailing this thing as some kind of masterpiece. It’s a very cool concept undermined by some very shoddy storytelling. The first hour is nothing but characters spouting exposition (clunky, awkward exposition), the secondary characters are completely underdeveloped and the emotional driver of the story (which ends up being the driver for the final two-thirds of the plot) just flat-out fails. There are some good set pieces and the performances are all fine, but Nolan’s skills as a director are consistently overshadowed by his failings as a writer (as they were in The Dark Knight). Now that the exposition is out of the way, there’s plenty of potential for the sequel to take the premise, give the team another mission, develop the secondary characters further and actually make us care. I’d totally be up for it.
Mark, uh no. Seriously, that post gave me a headache and that opinion really baffles me. Apparently to some people stating as much is wrong but really, I just don’t get it. Does not make me think any ill of you or anything, it’s just outstandingly astounding to me.
Tele, when it’s a billion dollar movie. Even then, he might still give it crap like he did Star Trek. Remember the Star Trek DVD/BD announcement press release thread? This could go into the Fall with his Inception hate and he will still not grasp how much he’s hating on it!
Bulldog, thanks for all the insightful info sir.
http://chud.com/articles/content_images/5/mightyavengers.jpg
ASSEMBLED!
All of the quotes are David Poland
Great post bulldog 68
Going way, way back to an earlier post: The more I think about it, the more I’m surprised by just how surprised I was when I saw the Flipped trailer today. To repeat: I was not aware that this movie existed until this morning. Seriously. And, uh, I usually try to remain au courant about upcoming movies. Put it another way: During the Friday-Monday July 4th weekend, I went on a moviegoing binge. Saw 12 movies — Solitary Man, I Am Love, The Secret in Their Eyes, Knight and Day, The Last Airbender, The A-Team, Grown-Ups, Robin Hood, Killers, Clash of the Titans, Please Give and Winter’s Bone — at a wide variety of venues, everything from megaplexes to art houses to second-run theaters. And not once did I see a poster or a trailer. Nada. Am I that out of touch? Or is this movie a late-summer dump?
“pushing the one crowd already in pocket.”
Bullshit. I’m a diehard Comic-Con fan, and the ONLY reason I saw SALT was because I was paid to review it. Would not have otherwise.
“Inception will win the weekend… but only because Salt is looking soft.” – DP
“Competition does not matter except, when it helps a movie I constantly underestimate.” – Mdana
Just to clarify, you’re each talking about different things. DP is talking about the ranking, so Inception is #1 because it’s gross is higher than Salt. It could be #1 with a gross of $10mil for the weekend if everything else had earned less – hence the comment “being #1 is not an important stat”.
Inception did not earn more money because Salt earned less. Well, it’s possible, but that’s not a conclusion that the box office numbers directly support.
FS-I meant to put in a sentence to clarify if my interpretation was correct, and then I got sidetracked on one of my mistakes. I should have questioned if that was his intention.
However, I do get the sense from reading his writing that he does not think movie X has any impact on movie Y. I do not see how that is possible. If Coke sells more than Pepsi, normally the market does not magically grow. They take customers from Pepsi or some other soft drink. I read many commments from movie fans along the lines of:
“I was going to see Salt this weekend, but I am going to spend my money on seeing Inception for a 3rd time.”
I grew up in a family that had an entertainment budget. We didn’t just suddenly see three movies when we wanted. We had to make choices and prioritize. I play poker once you take someone’s money, they don’t have an infinite wallet with more money to give you. I wish they did. š
Joe Leydon:
This is only anecdotal and it certainly wasn’t attached, just a random trailer from an entirely different studio, but I did see a trailer for FLIPPED about a month ago, in front of WINTER’S BONE, of all things.
Mdana – nod, it’s entirely possible that Inception did take prospective viewers from Salt, but given the massive fluctuations week-to-week in theatre attendance and the one-off transaction (…usually…) for a film it’s not something that can be directly inferred from box office numbers. You need additional data to support that argument.
Hey, is everyone going to feign (or express legit) shock in two weeks when STEP UP 3D opens to 40 mil or higher?
My shock is completely open to negotiations. Bidding starts at $200.
Joe- While I’ve (at least) heard of “Flipped,” I still haven’t seen a trailer, TV spot, one-sheet, anything. Wondering just how wide a release it’s going to get on August 6th. B.O. Mojo still won’t commit (“wide,” “limited,” whatever). Though Rob Reiner has had a tough run of it the past 15 or so years, he did come back strong with “Bucket List” a few Christmases ago. And considering that “Flipped” is being released (or at least I think it is) by the same studio (Warner Brothers), it seems an odd way of doing business with someone who made you a (no pun intended) bucket of money.
Well, WB is screening the heck out of “Flipped,” which was not the case with Fox and “Ramona” (Fox press-screened “Ramona,” but I heard they decided not to do any promotions around it — none). But, as has been pointed out, both of those movies are being advertised in places that are not high on the list of posters to this forum.
Can we all just face the fact that Inception is an anomaly, a singular event, in film? You can’t compare it to Snakes on a Plane or The Matrix, because it is operating in a new way. It is a cult movie that has a mainstream audience, it is a word of mouth favorite that has a loyal returning following, it is a huge blockbuster but feels like a high concept indie film. DP’s “failure” is that he is trying to put the movie into perspective (and that makes his often the sane one in a sea of hyperbole), but the problem is that maybe the perspective is flawed.
All I’m saying is if this movie hits $300 million like some here are predicting, we might have ourselves a new definable filmgoing audience that studios might be willing to cater to with exciting, challenging films. We should be celebrating that rather than just one film’s popularity or one writer’s perceived blindspot.
Where are you from, Chris?
Even the Cleveland-area WB publicist doesn’t know anything about “Flipped:” whether there’ll be a screening/promo, or even if it’s opening in this market in two weeks. Hell, she hadn’t even heard of it the last time I asked.
On an unrelated note: While “Schmucks” was promo-ed to death this past month, press weren’t “allowed” to see it before this upcoming Tuesday. Which, of course, happens to be the same nite this week’s other two wide releases (“Cats & Dogs 2” and “Charlie St. Cloud”) are also promo-ing.
At the same time, naturally.
And for some reason, the most promising of the three (“Schmucks”) is being “screened” at a location that’s halfway to Toledo. If I didn’t know better, I’d think “Schmucks” was a turkey that the studio was trying to hide. But since Variety’s rave appeared more than two weeks ago, I know for a fact that’s not true. The way things are going, I wouldn’t be surprised if the major studios completely eliminated advance screenings in the Cleveland market.
David believes that if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it must be a duck. This is because he has seen ducks before, but Inception is a flying duck and isn’t walking and it’s far too high in the sky to hear it quack. Consequently he doesnt know what the duck he is talking about.
Mr. Poland has a point. Inception opened in Warner’s world-crushing slot. That’s the Harry Potter slot. That’s the Dark Knight slot. Regardless of everything, everything else, that’s the first measure of Inception’s success.
Inception is measuring up to these expectations, more each day, though. And projecting $170M when everyone is talking about 200+, and then $240M when everyone’s estimates are more close to 300, does display some bias, in my opinion.
“Consequently he doesnt know what the duck he is talking about.”-HT
Great build up and line.