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David Poland

By David Poland poland@moviecitynews.com

BYOB 10/25/10

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32 Responses to “BYOB 10/25/10”

  1. anghus says:

    So the whole ‘Superhero Saturation ™’ thing is going into overdrive in 2011. Let me break down the year.

    Green Hornet comes out and tanks. No one cares. It makes very little money and the online media will begin questioning the legitimacy of comic book films. Lots of people will be ‘concerned’ about Thor. Green Hornet is on DVD before Thor hits theaters.

    Thor comes out and does typical Marvel May numbers for film without ‘Man’ in the title. 200 million. Overseas brings in 60% of total because fantasy plays better overseas. Critically, it will be poorly received a la Wolverine: Origins. The media will overreact about the cost and return on these mega comic book films.

    X-MEN: First Class underperforms. Critics admire it’s departure from the traditional fare. But no stars and a lack of known characters combined with a distinct visual look will make it the coolest comic book film that a lot of people skip. January Jones gets a lot of magazine covers. The movie gets cool points for style. The elements don’t add up and it gets to about 175 million.

    The media will continue to prattle on about the dubious proposition. The line will be ‘sure, theyre making back their money, but they aren’t performing to expectation’.

    Then Green Lantern comes out. Does Star Trek numbers. 250 million or more. Great international numbers. The kind of space opera story that does great with kids and adults.

    The giant Red, White, and Blue question mark is Captain America. Corniest concept. Corniest director. Is Chris Evans a breakout star waiting to happen? Can the movie generate numbers overseas? Do people in international markets want to see a virtual unknown donning the american flag to fight evil? I don’t have a pulse on this one, at all. It could be Indiana Jones. It could be the Phantom.

    Not one of these films will break 700 million worldwide.

    Though, if one does, i put my money on Green Lantern.

    I think a giant space opera could do well. Both Thor and Captain America have to fight the ham and cheese factors. XMEN First Class will be a battle of style over substance.

  2. leahnz says:

    every single comic book superhero (except wonder woman apparently) will be made into a movie and then ‘rebooted’ after 5 years until the end of days

  3. rdb says:

    Both Thor and Green Lantern will not find audiences. Thor will struggle to get to 100 and Green Lantern will make about the same. There is ZERO interest in these properties. ESPECIALLY when one has no names attached to it, and the other has a name that everyone wants out of comic book films (due to Origins).

  4. CleanSteve says:

    Off topic: Rob Zombie’s IT’S THE GREAT PUMPKIN, CHARLIE BROWN! NSFW, just so you know…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=380p1agGvhg

  5. IOv3 says:

    Hal and Donald Blake have a load of fans. I know it seems amazing to some but they do, they have for longer than most people on this blog have been alive, and they will going forward. Both films are also in 3D. That alone guarantees they will go over 100m.

    Anghus, you referring to Cap as corny may be one of the foulest things ever posted on this blog. He’s Captain America you disgusting man! HAVE SOME RESPECT! He’s also in a war movie and that alone should garner some interest by those not exactly into comic book films. Nevertheless, it’s the biggest genre in the history of film and 2012 will only guarantee that it will get bigger.

  6. LexG says:

    That TOENAIL PAINTING SCENE in PARANORMAL ACTIVITY 2 = YEP YEP. Anyone else DELIGHTED by that bit… It just kept going on, and on, I couldn’t believe it. The makers of these movies must be the hugest foot fetishists this side of Tarantino or John Stockwell, because they are NONSTOP FEET. Both of them. Even though they have different directors.

    It must be some edict from the top, like how all Bruckheimer movies hit the same visual signposts no matter who’s at the helm.

  7. Lex, where’s the second part of your Oscar Talk on You Tube? I loved the first one.

  8. anghus says:

    IO, you could be right. My thought process is just ‘gut feelings’. Captain America could be huge. But when i see the pieces, i have a hard time seeing how it gets to ‘huge’. Setting during World War 2 does give it a huge advantage. Nostalgia. Adventure. That could work. But i still don’t know if i would have put 200 million into a movie directed by Joe Johnston and starring Chris Evans.

    rdb… i can’t even fathom how someone who frequents this blog would believe Green Lantern and Thor won’t crack 100 million each, much less ‘struggle’ to get there.

    These are summer blockbusters with massive P&A budgets. Thor regularly appears in 2 cartoon series. One on Cartoon Network (Superhero Squad), one on Disney (A new Avengers cartoon that premiered last week). So between the massive ad buys, the associative branding they’ll do with Iron Man, and a character regularly appearing on children’s television that it will fight and barely cross the finish line at 100 million?

    madness.

    I could see the movie posting huge opening week numbers, being critically drubbed, getting to 150 and then falling flat. I still say it makes traditional Marvel May numbers i.e. around 200 million no matter how terrible it is.

  9. mutinyco says:

    Fincher, Assayas, Dante, Eastwood & Damon for download if anybody’s interested. http://filmmakermagazine.com/news/2010/10/fincher-eastwood-damon-assayas-and-dante-for-download/

  10. Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

    Love that A.O. Scott’s new video pick is A Perfect World, an underrated masterpiece and one of my favorite movies of the ’90s.

  11. sanj says:

    guy doesn’t like Edward Burns

    shoudn’t he have a dp/30 by now ?

    http://edburnssucks.blogspot.com/

  12. Joe Leydon says:

    I know this will sound like a cheap-shot dig at conservatives, but I am genuine curious: How many religious-minded folks are going to be turned off by “Thor” because it’s about a “god” — a God of Thunder, but a god nonetheless?

  13. Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

    Outside of a few fringe loonies, who make it their business to get upset about everything, I can’t imagine too many religious folks getting all worked up about that.

  14. Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

    Oh cool Joe. I can see why you have happy memories. I’ll definitely give that a read. Such a great film.

  15. Joe Leydon says:

    My review of “A Perfect World” for the Houston Post included one of my all-time worst Oscar predictions — which, of course, was blurbed in all the early ads: “The Oscar season begins in earnest with the release of ‘A Perfect World.'” Compared to that, I have to admit, David’s rapture over “Phantom of the Opera” seems altogether cool-headed and reasonable.

  16. christian says:

    GREEN LANTERN?

    THOR!

  17. christian says:

    Blasphemer!

  18. anghus says:

    Joe, no more so than stuff like Clash of the Titans which had stuff like DAMN THE GODS! in the advertising.

    I don’t think it will be an issue.

  19. Hopscotch says:

    Captain America, Thor, Lantern and Hornet will all do ok, but not great. They literally picked four of the blandest leading men they could find. Did they not get why we all loved Iron Man? We loved the suit and the guy in it.

    I’m just so fucking done with that genre. Done. I watched about five minutes of Wolverine on HBO last night, good gawd that was awful.

    Joe – sorry to make you feel old, but I was in junior high and remember reading that review to my parents at the kitchen table demanding they take me to go see it (we would eventually watch it on VHS). I half-love the movie. It really is Costner’s best performance, but the finale always was a bit melo-melodramatic for me. Some of it does seem to drag a bit. I haven’t seen it years and now I want to rent it, so take that for what its worth.

  20. Storymark says:

    Right. And everyone was clamoring for an Iron Man movie staring that guy from Alley McBeal and Weird Science that played Chaplin decades ago….

  21. jesse says:

    I dunno, anghus; X-Men is a brand with a whole lot of success even when the movies haven’t delivered, so it’s hard for me to picture First Class not doing at least moderately well. Of course, I guess I’d consider a gross in the area you’re predicting to be not too shabby. There have been four X-Men-related movies; the lowest grossing of them made $150 million ten years ago riding far less hype than its sequels. On the flipside, there’s that $230 million ceiling and a prequel without Wolverine is unlikely to break it. But it seems pretty likely that First Class could do 150, maybe in the 180 range of Wolverine, which means it’ll outgross any movie starring the Fantastic Four or the Hulk.

    I guess the release date could be a problem — it’s sort of wedged in there, without a high-profile May or July 4th or late-July launch, in an early-June date that in recent years has been relegated more to counterprogramming (broad comedies, rom-coms, smaller action movies) than a BIG! action-adventure tentpole movie. But these movies don’t need more than a few weekends anyway, right?

  22. anghus says:

    wait, hopscoth…. did i read that right?

    a super melodramatic ending to an Eastwood film?

    IMPOSSIBLE.

    Are you telling me the ending to MILLION DOLLAR BABY was melodramatic?
    Are you inferring that the end to GRAN TORINO was melodramatic as hell?
    Can you possibly be suggesting that the man who directed INVICTUS delivers syrupy melodramatic endings?

    IMPOSSIBLE.

  23. Hopscotch says:

    anghus, well played.

  24. Paul MD (Stella's Boy) says:

    I suppose A Perfect World’s ending is melodramatic, but it works for me. I don’t care for Million Dollar Baby or Gran Torino much overall.

  25. anghus says:

    XMEN First Class is the project i’m most interested in creatively. But youre absolutely right. No wolverine, no recognizable charaters that haven’t already been strip mined and used. I was thinking it’d be awesome to have someone like Angel in ‘first class’, and then i remembered they used him in a complete throwaway part in X3.

    If they can pull it off, fabulous. But i’m trying to figure out how you market a bunch of characters no one has ever heard of and set it during the mod era as a summer tentpole.

    And im with you. 175 million seems ‘good’ for a movie like that. But with what they’re spending, you’d think that would be a dissapointment.

  26. Krillian says:

    I don’t think there was much buzz for Iron Man until the cool trailer debuted. There was hope, but not real true excitement. “From the director of Elf?…”

    Of Summer 2011, I’m inclined to think Thor will get the most, then X-Men: 1st Class, then Green Lantern, then Captain America, but it all comes down to marketing. And it looks like Green Lantern has an easier weekend than X-Men.

  27. movieman says:

    Does anyone else find it peculiar that Fox is planning to release “Gulliver’s Travels” two short weeks after the latest “Narnia”?
    Aren’t they worried the former will cannibalize a good chunk of the holiday family trade from the latter? It’s bad enough that “Narnia” has to worry about “Yogi Bear” (which is opening a mere week later) breathing down its neck.
    Anyone want to go out on a limb and predict that Jack Black’s 3-D kidflick gets pushed back to 2011?

  28. movieman says:

    Finally caught up with “It’s Kind of a Funny Story” yesterday afternoon.
    I really, really enjoyed it, and am surprised it didn’t go out through Universal proper rather than Focus. The book that it’s based on apparently has a large youth following, and this could have easily banked some serious bucks with a concerted marketing push (heavy MTV presence, etc.) Focus didn’t seem to know what they had: their half-hearted release (700-ish screens rather than the 2,000+ they gave “The American;” a non-existent media campaign) made its b.o. failure a fait accompli. I actually think it’s a more commercial film than their George Clooney Labor Day Weekend release (a film that I liked as well). Too bad nobody will see it until DVD.

  29. sanj says:

    DP – really cranking out the dp30 sneak peaks but no full dp/30 … you have 4 ready to go x 30 minutes = 2 hours of
    videos ..

    do the movies studios not allow you to post the full versions has fast as possible ?

    hope you post them all this weekend ..

  30. movieman says:

    …also caught up with “Waiting for Superman” (a knee-jerk liberal tract that’s even more boring than Guggenheim’s “An Inconvenient Truth” and “It Might Get Loud:” zzzzzzzzzzzzzz); “Buried” (remarkably sustained for 90 minutes, with a nasty little fillip at the end that I quite enjoyed; but I can see why multiplexers rejected it); and “Never Let Me Go” (a splendid film–beautifully acted, impeccably filmed, intelligently adapted–that probably needed just a tad more overt emotionalism to connect with audiences in a significant fashion; still, it’s complete and utter b.o. failure is rather astonishing).
    Hoping to finally get around to “Nowhere Boy” this week before it skips town.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon