Box Office A Ho Ho
As I continue to try to pump out some more weighty year-end stuff, box office caught my eye this morning.
With a $32.2m Top Ten gross, the day before Christmas Eve is down by $13.5 million in the Top Ten this year from last… but considering the lack of a single mega-hit, like Avatar or Alvin & The Chipmunks 2, the box office did rather well, really.
Those two films – and Alvin beat Avatar that day last year – represented $35.2 million of the $45.7m total gross for the day, 77% of the gross. Those were the only two films in the marketplace with a daily gross of over $2 million. Yesterday, there were six such films.
We are also less reliant on the 3D bump this year, with 3D films representing about 26% of the gross yesterday and about 44% last year. If you figure the 3D bump at 25% of ticket prices for those films, that was $11m added to last years day-before coffers and $3.8m this year. That alone makes up more than half the difference from last year.
Yet, my guess is that you will read a lot of stories about the box office being down that use it to bolster the false claim that bad things are happening in exhibition. And the ultimate irony of this is that the argument will be used – incorrectly – to talk about the “broken” system… when in fact, the spread of better box office for more movies and a lack of a mega-movie is exactly what all the doom sayers say that they want, more balance.
Other points of interest…
Little Fockers is off 40% from the last one and is yet another reminder of going to the well too many times, slightly less of a drop than Sex & The City 2’s 47% opening day fall, but not pretty.
Tron Legacy is only a few million behind King Kong‘s 7-day number, though it’s also significantly behind Kong’s day-before-Christmas-Eve gross… so hard to read… $200 million is still realistic, but it’s getting a little more distant each day.
Hard to get a read on True Grit‘s opening so far. Not bad. Not sensational. But enough to get word-of-mouth rolling.
Black Swan passed The Fighter in daily gross the last two days, in spite of 42% fewer screens. More importantly, Swan finds itself at almost double the gross of Up In The Air after the day-before-Christmas-Eve after very similar slow December release strategies. Those who have argued that Swan isn’t capable of finding a mainstream audience might be forced to reconsider.
Tangled is already at $137 million and still running a little hotter than The Princess & The Frog was last year. Look for the domestic total to pass $175 million by the end of the holidays, which would make it the #3 non-Pixar Disney animation title of all-time. Yes, 3D… yes, ticket prices… but still, after years of slumber, even at the stupid price tag, you have to be impressed (especially since the big production cost isn’t an on-screen stunt… it’s just a good animated movie doing very good business compared to recent Disney history.
True Grit is hard to read? Biggest Coen week ever? A clear financial success. The biggest grossing “western” in years?
The real question here is can it get higher then $100 million before it fades.
I believe the strong reviews and receptions wil not make it too frontloaded.
Up in the Air grossed $11.3 million over Christmas weekend last year. Since I saw Black Swan today in an auditorium with a whopping 8 people, I’m going to predict it won’t come close to that. Granted, it’s Christmas Eve and it was a 12:15 showtime, but still, as much as I liked the movie, I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it is a hit here in Hickville USA.
Jason S… beware experiential box office estimations.
Proman… you remain a bit of a hysteric. I’m trying to be a bit circumspect, as these numbers demand and in line with my take on the season. I’m pretty sure that if I came out screaming about how big a hit it is going to be, I would be accused (probably by you) of trying to bury Social Network. We have no way of knowing how front loaded True Grit is. We have no way of knowing where it’s going to play strongest.
Obviously, it’s not going to be a bomb. But how big a hit will it be? Unknown.
In terms of award season, no one sits around talking about the biggest week for the Coens ever… especially after you intentionally avoid the weekend, which is not likely to beat Burn After Reading. If it grosses $100 million in the next 6 weeks, it becomes the favorite to win Best Picture. If it grosses $60m, it’s not so clear, though yes, it will be a financial success. If it’s over $70m when Oscar nominations are announced, it’s likely to get to $100m and win.
Can I quote you on that, David? Seriously: My readers at Cowboys & Indians would love to read this:
“Veteran film industry analyst David Poland thinks True Grit has a definite shot at an Academy Award nomination. Indeed, he foresees a scenario with the happiest possible ending: A Best Picture award goes to a Western for only the fourth time in Oscar history.”
[Insert quote from Poland here]
Can I point out the obvious bizarro sight of Jeff Bridges starring in a Western and Sc-Fi film in the same week?
This guy is HUGE.
Unless it’s MASSIVE box office hit (I’m talkin’ $250m +), there’s no way True Grit is winning Best Picture. The Coens have been rewarded enough, and too recently. No Country swept the Oscars only three years ago. Hell, even their pseudonym (Roderick Jaynes) nearly took the editing Oscar.
Best Picture and Best Director to the Coen Brothers? ZZZZZ
There’s always the possibility of a split vote; e.g., GRIT (or even SPEECH) for Picture and Fincher for Director.
Yeah I am with Nelson. The Coens have their gold. Enough already. Even if I am not over the moon with the TSN, it’s hopefully Fincher’s year. If they are not into giving it to Fincher. There’s this brilliant, absolutely brilliant, Englishman that wrote and directed one of the greatest films of the decade and it’s as original as they come. Seriously… if the old people fail me again… shameful.
ETA: No Cad, Gritmake GET’S NOTHING! NOTHING! [keeps screaming] NOTHING!
Y’all can keep arguing over best picture all ya want. The post office delivered my Criterion DVD of Dassin’s Night and the City this morning, so that’ll drown out any noise.
I’m with IO on this one — rooting for Fincher or Nolan, although I’d also be happy if Aronofsky somehow gets it.
Aronofsky is also super freaking worthy because he’s freaking Aronofsky. Seriously… someone new should get that Oscar this year.
I watched the Wayne “True Grit” on TCM the other night. I found it to be somewhat lighthearted until the third act which is when I finally felt some urgency brought on by various actions. There are those who feel that Wayne was given a career Oscar. They’re not too far off. His performance does not match his better work under Ford.
“Black Swan” is one f–ked up film. I saw it at The Grove yesterday afternoon and 3 people walked out including the schmoe I had to ask to stop texting. I guess that means it’s working! SPOILER ALERT: But, has anyone noticed how Aaronofsky repeated himself with the drug induced hallucinations from “Requiem For A Dream?” Still, the psychosis of Nina coupled with the ending is fascinating because we never really know if Heidi is a ballet corps Eve Harrington or party girl.
Merry Christmas to one and all, and to all a good night.
Yes, Joe.
And the idea that it needs $200 million is silly.
And it absolutely could be a split director/picture vote.
But every time I read that so and so has already had their win and so The Academy will move on, I am reminded how confused people are about a group of 6000 voting like they are a group of 100.
No one in the race this year, except perhaps Colin Firth, is going into it as “due.” Fincher is great, but he has a lot of movies to come. I don’t hear anyone saying, “It’s his time.”
But it may well be his time.
I am NOT saying that True Grit is now a lock or even a likely winner. No one knows. The only thing that the critics awards assures is that Social Network will be revisited by Academy members who saw it in October and that anyone who hasn’t seen it will see it. Virtually every Academy member will see True Grit and The King’s Speech. Every other film on this track will have a smaller percentage of Academy members viewing their films, in my opinion.
But yes, Joe, you can quote me. True Grit will be nominated for Best Picture, Hailee Steinfeld will be a serious contender to win Best Supporting Actress, and there is a real chance that True Grit will become the consensus film and end up winning Best Picture, though the film still has a long race to run.
Mutiny – Nice Christmas gift. I love that damn movie. Widmark rules.
If True Grit becomes the consensus film… someone better buy a motorcycle for James Franco so can jump a shark! Good lord.
Oh yeah San, when you beat one of the greatest actors to ever live for the Oscar. It’s not just for one’s career.
Merry Xmas to all!!!!
Y’know, gang. I posited that film/director split idea a while back (suggesting that Fincher might win director and “King’s” could take picture), but now I’m not so sure. Why couldn’t Fincher (and “Social Net”) win both, just like Bigelow and “Hurt Locker” (another critical darling that swept virtually every major year-end crix awards) last year? That’s actually beginning to seem like the more obvious scenario.
I’m a major “Grit” fan, yet can’t see the Coens winning three years after taking the gold for “NCFOM” (and for a–okay I said it-remake). Beaucoup nominations, sure, but except for (possibly) the young missus and Deakins, it looks more like a bridesmaid year for Ethan and Joel.
…and “TG” becoming the Coen’s first $100-million grosser will be worth more than any (add’l) Oscars in the long run.
I’m still puzzled by the (relatively) tepid b.o. for “The Fighter.” Does it need Oscar validation to attract a bigger aud? The whole thing just seems kind of weird to me. I really thought that Wahlberg in a boxing flick would’ve banked major bucks (particularly with its terrific reviews and awards season hoopla). Hell, “The Tourist” is doing (relatively) better, and everyone was damn quick to dismiss that Depp/Jolie bon-bon as the biggest flop of the] season (i.e., until “How Do You Know” opened).
This split the vote meme shoulda died off after every prognosticator was wrong about Soderbergh and TRAFFIC/ERIN BROCKOVICH.
Merry xmas!
Without seeing The Fighter and going off the trailers alone, it looks like the biggest Oscar bait of the season. I don’t like Wahlberg so it has that going against it for me. And the Bale stuff, while truly going all out for his craft, on face value alone doesn’t look like anything new from him. Apparently he,s acting is good enough to make him the presumptive favorite for supporting actor.