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David Poland

By David Poland

Friday Estimates By Kato Klady

Sony will open The Green Hornet to a Underworld: Evolution type number. How core is the audience? Today and next weekend will tell.

The Dilemma‘s opening is not gay…. as in happy. Let’s just say, it’s no Bride Wars… but if it’s better than the ads make it look, maybe there are some legs to be stretched… but probably not. The movies that have done a big multiple from this kind of opening and this month tend to be kids films.

True Grit is cruising along, nearing $125m by the end of the weekend. Also, The King’s Speech finally went semi-wide to good effect, passing $40m this weekend. Black Swan, expanded to 2328 screens, will crack $70m this weekend and perhaps become the #3 grosser in Searchlight history (if not tomorrow, Monday or Tuesday). And The Fighter, the only film in this group to lose more than 30% from last Friday, will close in on $65m this weekend.

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17 Responses to “Friday Estimates By Kato Klady”

  1. a_loco says:

    And even from a Canadian perspective, Barney’s Version is awful, although Giamatti does what he can with the hairpiece.

  2. movieman says:

    Reposting the first part of this since I (apparently and inadvertently) put it on the wrong thread:
    Looks like Kevin James’ track record of starring in nothing but $100-million-plus grossing comedies may have come to a halt.
    “The Dilemma” is just plain weird and doesn’t work at all. Ron Howard simply isn’t a good enough director to finesse the movie’s schizophrenic tonal shifts (Alexander Payne might have been able to pull it off). And the demonization of the Ryder character was far more offensive than the gay (car) jokes everybody made such a big fuss about last fall when the trailer began to circulate.
    I’m actually kind of surprised it got a “B” Cinemascore rating. The Friday matinee audience I saw “The Dilemma” with seemed to genuinely loathe
    I don’t know: I rather enjoyed “Barney’s Version,” Loco. Even though I usually have a low tolerance level for Canuck-centric films, this one was
    surprisingly pleasurable. Giamatti, Pike (who’s never been better) and Hoffman are all flat-out terrific. Speaking of Hofman, why doesn’t his kid Jake get more work? He’s been very good in the small handful of movies he’s done (including “Rosencrantz and Guildenstern Are Undead” and this). Is he perhaps suffering from the same reverse-nepotism curse that plagued Scot Caan in the early stages of his career?

  3. EthanG says:

    How long can the spin at Universal keep up? “The Dilemma” will make barely over half of what “Paul Blart” did on MLK weekend two years ago. Even worse? Because of the additional wattage all around…Dilemma cost $70 million to produce to Blart’s $26 million. This is before marketing costs…aka Red Ink City nullifying profits from seemingly worse “Little Fockers”. The worst part? This movie was the biggest slam dunk on Uni’s schedule for months (on paper at least).

  4. IOv3 says:

    Looks like the Swan is going to get where I thought it would. Huzzah for being some what correct about box office for once! WOOOOOOOOO!!! Nevertheless, that movie is awesome. Sure it has some over the top production design bits of business going on (Yes, I get the mirror Darren. Yes, I get the white, black, and the pink. Yes yes, very good, back to the movie.) but it may be one of the best films ever about perfection and it’s cost.

    If it is indeed is in the top 10 Oscar nominees, that’s just awesome. Seriously, this movie is just plain weird and it’s phenomenal that it’s weirdness works with some people.

  5. Botner says:

    The Dilemma is going to get terrible WOM. Just crickets in the theatre I was in. People expected a dumb comedy and got a dumb melodrama instead.

  6. movieman says:

    I’ve said this before but it begs repeating: how fantastic is it that indie vets like Aronofsky and Russell will both have their first $100-million grossers by Oscar nite?
    And that’s on top of the Coens finally hitting the magical $100-million mark with “TG,” a mere two weeks into its run.
    Shit like that gives you/me/anyone-who-cares-about-movies hope that multiplex audiences really aren’t complete bottom-feeder morons after all….despite repeated evidence to the contrary (“Grown Ups” anyone?)
    Did anyone bother seeing “Heart Specialist”? Freestyle didn’t even bother opening in NYC, so I’m guessing it must be even worse than the average Tyler Perry movie.

  7. leahnz says:

    based on the outrageously heavy promotion here for ‘the dilemma’ of blitzkrieg-like proportions with tv ads on every three seconds on every channel for weeks before release, i’m guessing they are going for the international gross in a big way…(?)

    i NEVER understand the rationale for these things. i mean who comes up with the notion, “let’s promote most movies down there in little enzed with one TV ad and a bus shelter poster, that’s all they deserve…but wait! this movie ‘the dilemma’, that’s the ticket — let’s spend a small fortune inundating those kiwis with thousands of inescapable ads in an intensive push over the top for this movie, because they seem like JUST the sort that’ll like the cut of our jib, plump american schlubs with ridiculously mismatched wives in a cringe-worthy awkward story about infidelity and idiocy, yes! ad bombs away in kiwiland!!!

    i don’t get it (i’d rather sand down my cornea with the grittiest paper than willingly go see ‘the dilemma’ at the cinema, and i’d venture to guess i’m not the only one)

  8. Proman says:

    “I’ve said this before but it begs repeating: how fantastic is it that indie vets like Aronofsky and Russell will both have their first $100-million grossers by Oscar nite?”

    Unless you are referring to its worldwide gross, it’s very inlikely that The Fighter will come close to $100 domestically.

  9. movieman says:

    I’m still hoping for an Oscar nom surge, Pro.
    And the movie has been a remarkably consistent grosser since opening on December 17th.

  10. cadavra says:

    Absolutely. It’s at 62+ with at least two more months to go in theatres plus all the Oscar attention (and possible wins for Bale and Leo) yet to come. I’ll be genuinely shocked if it doesn’t cross 100 domestically.

  11. Peter says:

    I too enjoyed Barney’s Version. I think the film was a bit out of focus before Barney meeting Miriam, as it should. Rosemund Pike is really good, the best work she has done.

  12. christian says:

    The poster for DILEMMA was strange, not quite a photo, not quite an illustration. Some monstrous hybrid.

  13. cadavra says:

    Just like the movie itself!

  14. shillfor alanhorn says:

    CHRISTIAN: Agree with you on those freakish DILEMMA posters and billboards. The odd vanity “uncanny valley” Photo-Shopping on movie posters is getting out of hand. I expect it on something like the one-sheet for THE WOMEN or SEX AND THE CITY 2 (where Sarah Jessica Parker’s face doesn’t even look human), but it has now extended to the realm of comedies. In addition to DILEMMA, the DUE DATE campaign also was weird — Zach Galafinakis’s face looked vaguely Asian. And what was with that freaky alien-looking Matt Damon on the HEREAFTER poster? Do the studios think this helps their movies? Or is it an ego-driven give-and-take between the actors’ publicists and the marketing departments? Bizarre, a turn off, and, perhaps, part of the reason these movies didn’t open as well as they were supposed to.

  15. leahnz says:

    together those huge seamless glennbeck-esque humptydumpty foreheads are scarier than the saggy underwear lady in [REC]

    (all it needs now is supersmoothed tarantino and danny boyle on there to really scare the shit out of you. “you can run but you can’t hide from the terrifying humptydumpty heads. frankenforeheads: coming to a theatre near you”)

  16. cadavra says:

    And take a good look at Aniston on the JUST GO WITH IT one-sheet. Looks more like a painting than a photograph.

  17. yancyskancy says:

    Some of these look like posters for A.I.: Artificial Intelligence Part 2 or something.

Quote Unquotesee all »

It shows how out of it I was in trying to be in it, acknowledging that I was out of it to myself, and then thinking, “Okay, how do I stop being out of it? Well, I get some legitimate illogical narrative ideas” — some novel, you know?

So I decided on three writers that I might be able to option their material and get some producer, or myself as producer, and then get some writer to do a screenplay on it, and maybe make a movie.

And so the three projects were “Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep,” “Naked Lunch” and a collection of Bukowski. Which, in 1975, forget it — I mean, that was nuts. Hollywood would not touch any of that, but I was looking for something commercial, and I thought that all of these things were coming.

There would be no Blade Runner if there was no Ray Bradbury. I couldn’t find Philip K. Dick. His agent didn’t even know where he was. And so I gave up.

I was walking down the street and I ran into Bradbury — he directed a play that I was going to do as an actor, so we know each other, but he yelled “hi” — and I’d forgot who he was.

So at my girlfriend Barbara Hershey’s urging — I was with her at that moment — she said, “Talk to him! That guy really wants to talk to you,” and I said “No, fuck him,” and keep walking.

But then I did, and then I realized who it was, and I thought, “Wait, he’s in that realm, maybe he knows Philip K. Dick.” I said, “You know a guy named—” “Yeah, sure — you want his phone number?”

My friend paid my rent for a year while I wrote, because it turned out we couldn’t get a writer. My friends kept on me about, well, if you can’t get a writer, then you write.”
~ Hampton Fancher

“That was the most disappointing thing to me in how this thing was played. Is that I’m on the phone with you now, after all that’s been said, and the fundamental distinction between what James is dealing with in these other cases is not actually brought to the fore. The fundamental difference is that James Franco didn’t seek to use his position to have sex with anyone. There’s not a case of that. He wasn’t using his position or status to try to solicit a sexual favor from anyone. If he had — if that were what the accusation involved — the show would not have gone on. We would have folded up shop and we would have not completed the show. Because then it would have been the same as Harvey Weinstein, or Les Moonves, or any of these cases that are fundamental to this new paradigm. Did you not notice that? Why did you not notice that? Is that not something notable to say, journalistically? Because nobody could find the voice to say it. I’m not just being rhetorical. Why is it that you and the other critics, none of you could find the voice to say, “You know, it’s not this, it’s that”? Because — let me go on and speak further to this. If you go back to the L.A. Times piece, that’s what it lacked. That’s what they were not able to deliver. The one example in the five that involved an issue of a sexual act was between James and a woman he was dating, who he was not working with. There was no professional dynamic in any capacity.

~ David Simon