The Hot Blog Archive for December, 2009
The Avatar Number
Fox is saying $3.5 million for the midnights.
Already this is being taken out of perspective completely.
The December record – and keep in mind, this includes the top two grossing films of all time – is a $77.3 million opening.
A $100 million opening in December would be shocking. It would be better than a 30% increase on the former December record. More significant than Spider-Man taking the all-time opening from Potter’s $90.3 to $115m in 2002.
But I don’t think that’s going to happen.
$80m to $85 million is a realistic number. And that will still shatter records.
We’ve already discussed December.
The highest grossing opening of ALL TIME for an original screenplay movie is The Passion of The Christ‘s $83.8 million… and I’m not sure that really counts.
I Am Legend‘s $77.2m is not 100% an original, but I think it was original to the vast majority of people buying tickets that weekend. There weren’t millions clamoring for a rethink on Matheson.
After that, it’s 300, kinda, at $71 million.
For me, after IAL, the next legitimate comparison is Up, which had the Pixar brand as Avatar has the Cameron brand, opening to $68.1 million. Then, Bruce Almighty at $68 million.
As I keep saying, perspective is important here.
If I had to project – and I must… I must – a conservative estimate would be $75m this weekend, $45m M-Th, $45m next weekend, $40m M-Th, and $35 New Year’s weekend for a total of $230m by the end of the holiday with more to come. It could be $50 million higher.
The thing to keep in mind is that the film has under 4000 screens, which is about half the number of screens on which movies like this now tend to open… sometimes even more. It’s not that no seats will ever be empty – this is a myth created by people who live in cities and go to a handful of the busiest screens in the world – but that the opportunity for anytime viewing, showtimes every hour for the next 3 weeks, is not there for this film. More people will wait a bit longer.
My ultimate number, as it was a week ago, is between $400m and $500m domestic and $700m and $800m internationally, meaning between $1.1 billion and $1.3 billion worldwide in theatrical. That number is not conservative. But I do think it’s pretty realistic.
Here are your…
ALL-TIME OPENERS
The Dark Knight $158,411,483
Spider-Man 3 $151,116,516
The Twilight Saga: New Moon $142,839,137
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest $135,634,554
Shrek the Third $121,629,270
Spider-Man $114,844,116
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End $114,732,820
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen $108,966,307
Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith $108,435,841
Shrek 2 $108,037,878
ALL-TIME GROSSERS
Titanic $1,842.90
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $1,119.10
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest $1,066.20
The Dark Knight $1,001.90
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone $974.70
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End $961.00
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $938.20
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince $929.40
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $925.30
Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace $924.30
Notice that only 3 of the Top Ten openers are Top Ten grossers worldwide.
Perspective.
ADD, 2:39p – A reader pointed out that I hadn’t really addresses the $3 – $4 extra per ticket that people pay for 3D.
I had in my head, but that’s no real use to you.
Given at the increase in ticket price is about 25%, it is not insignificant. But as is always the reality, dollars don’t know how they are being spent. Does this mean that someone is going to argue that Avatar is not really the top opener in December of it does less than $95 million? I’m sure. There are people who like to find excuses to be contrarian.
My main point here is that the record is not terribly important. Second, the opening weekend of a December movie does not define the run in the way it does in the summer or other times of the year. Third, did people pay extra to see I Am Legend on IMAX screens… and are we really looking to diagnose every film this way? Fourth, do the budget estimates get a 25% cut to match the increased ticket pricing?
People love crunching numbers to create direct comparisons in situations in which it is simply silly. It almost always seems like an exercise in insulting people’s intelligence by assuming, for instance, that they don’t understand that Gone With The Wind is not in the same box office universe as Spider-Man and the numbers have completely different contexts. Of course, this exacerbated by journalists who deserve such insults to their intelligence and do not do their research.
If you are one who wants to count tickets, be my guest. I see it as a worthless pursuit. No one writes about the number of tickets sold to kids films vs adult films nor do the “tickets sold” people, who are guessing at the numbers based on MPAA estimates of avg ticket price and theatrical grosses. But an animated movie probably sells 20% – 30% more tickets to get to the same gross as an “adult” movie because of reduced ticket prices for kids. Does that make Up 20% or 30% more successful than The Hangover, because no doubt, it sold at least 20% more tickets?
I fine all the nit picking irritating and, again, a waste of time. It’s another excuse by media to own the spigot of “what’s doing good” and “what’s doing bad,” just as the NYT’s false $500m story did, tearing down Avatar, or the overhype of Twilight: New Moon. Pricing is a tool used to get to the largest amount of money possible. Not every film – and not every widget – works under the same pricing guidelines. it is the job of journalists to address the specific clearly and to keep the general in perspective. At least, that’s how I see it.
The Road To Box Office Hell?
ALL-TIME DECEMBER OPENINGS
1 I Am Legend $77,211,321
2 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King $72,629,713
3 The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $65,556,312
4 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers $62,007,528
5 King Kong $50,130,145
The Seven Avatar Elements That Would Be The Single Key Conceit Of Most Films
It struck me more clearly than before as I watched Avatar again that the film’s power is, in some part, about doing so many things in the story. Some of the positive reviews have taken the position that the film is more action than story. But that’s just insane.
You could certainly argue that there is too much story and that no one part of the story is well served by the density. I would disagree, but you could make the argument intelligently.
In any case, here are the ideas that I noticed that most filmmakers would make as an individual film or at the most, use two of the ideas in one film.
1. A Human Living Inside An Avatar
2. An Alien Planet Filled With Never Before Seen Animals & Humanoids
3. The Massive Machinery of War On A As Yet Unseen Scale
4. Faithless Man Vs Nature/Faith
5. Imperialistic War Against An Indigenous People
6. Nature Vs Machine
7. Fish Out Of Water Love Story
OOOOH, That Hurts!
Wow.
How much crow did Bryan Singer have to eat to get signed by Tom Rothman for another X-Men movie? How cold must he be to have to return to do a prequel to the franchise he walked away from, costing Fox tens of millions as it sped through two different directors in order to get X3 out in time to step all over Superman Returns, the movie Singer abandoned ship to do. (X3 won the pissing match by $70 million in box office worldwide.)
The move makes perfect sense for Fox. Singer will bring excitement and he knows how to do this to perfection. And the move makes sense for Singer, who spent too much time on Valkyrie and hasn’t gotten a film off the ground since. HE says that Jack The Giant Killer is still happening at WB… but no casting info on the film yet. And I assume we can now forget the Battlestar Galactica feature or the Excalibur remake.
It’s possible he’ll do all four. But I wouldn’t bet on it. Maybe two. But I wouldn’t bet on that either.
And the world keeps turning…
20 Weeks To Oscar – 13 Weeks To Go
One of the most interesting elements of this season is the lack of backbiting so far.
I know. Some of our favorite hysterics are all about the rage. But every nasty aside she quoted in her blog entry about nasty gossip was old news or false news. And there is a huge difference between a conversation about a real issue with a movie or a little sniping over an event that seemed unusual and a sustained campaign against a movie on dubious grounds.
In the season that Lord of The Rings: Fellowship of the Rings was nominated, there was endless chatter from the three consultants that New Line wasn
Avatar – Take 3
Just settling in to my 2.25th screening… and it’s in the third different format (Dolby Digital 3D). And there is another screening tonight in a fourth format (IMAX Celluloid). And I haven’t seen the film in 2D yet.
I kinda liked the idea of seeing it in 2D tonight… but it turned out to be 3.
More when it’s over…
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10:50p – A less immersive experience. Interesting.
Movie is still pretty amazing. Why wife actually preferred it this way. On the other hand, her sense of getting more perspective on the film may have been because she knew what was coming.
It’s nice to walk out of a theater with people buzzing. There are going to be a lot of Avatards out there, learning the language, remembering the many native names, etc.
Spinning Web Numbers
I decided not to publish this earlier today… but now that Gawker is also on the case, what the heck?!
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Oh, how I love spin.
I should probably abstain, but I’m a sucker for slapping hypocrites.
When Nikki Finke sold her blog to Jay Penske, journalists looking into her numbers and reporting back about numbers from reporting services were rebuked by Nikki herself, as she explained that she had her private measuring system and that her numbers were bigger than reported elsewhere.
Today, she and Penske are touting a ComScore that claims she has more readers than both trades combined.
Next month, ComScore will be wrong and someone else will be right.
Why is Penske releasing this nonsense (picked up by one outlet… Nikki)? Ad sales.
There are two constants in this little universe of spun numbers.
1. The survey sites do not do a good job of measuring niche sites. Simple test. ComScore surveys 1 million US computers. How many industry professionals do you know who are measured?
2. Math is always iffy in dealing with the web. In web speak, the trades subscription base alone is about 880,000 unique visitors in a month.
Conversely, 1,111,000 Unique Visitors is about 15,000 readers a day on Mondays – Thursdays and about 200k a day Fri-Sun, when the Nikki’s blog is promoted as the top box office source on Drudge. Of course, that is assuming that the ComScore numbers are accurate… and there is no real proof of that, other than the fact that studios, desperate for measurements, believe in them.
It is notable that Penske doesn’t offer any of the actual in-house numbers on Nikki’s page. Are we to believe that the survey is dead-on accurate? Magic 8-Ball says, “No Chance.”
No one can say that Nikki has not done remarkably well for a single person blogging. She gets a lot of attention in Traditional Media and that Drudge link each weekend is like gold for her. And yes, the trade press numbers are in decline, especially with the window being closed at Variety.
There is little question that Nikki has the most read blog in the industry right now. But that is one page. Even looking at the numbers in the press release, it is clear that The Industry is not being measured by ComScore. To give the devil her due, do you know any one who reads Nikki in the business who only goes on her page twice a month? Of course not. But that is what he ComScore detail suggests. Even if you break down the uniques to daily visitors, you’re still looking at 2 views a day. For the Nikki obsessed – you know who you are – that’s a quarter of less of your daily visits.
Let’s not bullshit an industry of bullshitters.
Nikki has done great for herself. She has not “surpassed the combined number of total unique visitors on both Variety.com (515,000) and HollywoodReporter.com (336,000) and their print editions.” Her page is clearly read more widely and more often than BFD or any other single blog or column in Variety or THR or clearly, MCN and The Hot Blog.
I learned this lesson myself at one point, when I boasted about our numbers outdoing the traders. But then, I was asked how I knew what the traffic at The Trades really was, given that I was explaining that our numbers are not effectively reflected by the sources I was taking into account. Good point. And I haven’t made that unsure boast again.
If I were advertising things for agents and studio execs who are scared of their own shadows, I would be buying ads on there, for sure, even if it meant I was supporting the worst, most unethical behavior in the industry and showed no concern about being associated with a hateful, abusive, often misleading gossip.
Bottom Line: None of the industry sites are bought for ads because of raw numbers of uniques. We are all bought to read the niche. Nikki’s blog is a niche blog that gets an extra goose of mainstream attention because of the Drudge link. But as anyone in this realm knows, like a film festival, the profit is not in how many butts you put in the seats, but what butts you draw attention from and how interested they are in what you have to say. That is Nikki’s strength right now. How she gets that attention is her weakness, in terms of advertising buys.
I suppose if she was sold out on Phase I ad space, as MCN is for the fourth year in the last five, she wouldn’t have to be out trying to convince people she’s the place to buy ads. And in this regard, she is, indeed, ahead of even The Trades.
Did Whip It Kill The Runaways
It struck me as I watched the trailer for The Runaways on MTV…
Did the box office failure of Drew Barrymore’s well-received grrl power film ($13m), which had Juno‘s Oscar-nominated Ellen Page, Barrymore, Kristin Wiig, and hipness herself, Alli Shawkat, leave Bill Pohlad self-distributing his K-Stew grrrl power film via Apparition?
What do you think?
It's The SAGgies!
What is there to say?
If you think you can determine anything about The Oscars by looking at the SAG nominations, you are on crack.
The idea of Best Ensemble as an important reflection of where The Academy will go with Best Picture is mythology made even less real by 10 BP nominees.
And let’s not forget 2007… No Country for Old Men, 3:10 to Yuma, American Gangster, Hairspray, Into the Wild. Well… that didn’t work out so well.
The acting nods could go a lot like this. Diane Kruger isn’t happening. I would bet that at least one actor in each of the male acting categories here will be disappointed on Oscar nomination morning.
Bring on the “shouldn’t this award stand on its own” chatter if you must. But SAG is another group that desperately wants to be seen as a precursor. Yes, every honor is a good thing. Yes, I am pleased that a few of the dumb choices not to nom at HFPA are showing up here, if only because hyperactive Oscar analysts would make too much hay of the names being in or out.
So now we can enjoy the holidays before announcements from WGA (Jan 11), DGA (Jan 7) and PGA (Jan 5), which will make everyone’s life harder by going to 10 nominees to mirror The Academy.
trailering
Alice In Wonderland – A bit more stuff… a bit more story… not much of a leap though. I expected bigger fingerprints from Rich Ross. Helena Bonham Carter does more and does it well. And Alice as Joan of Arc is the biggest new offering, appealing to young girls. Oh, that Rich Ross is tricky.
Disney’s earlier version had to be pulled from 16mm distribution because it was getting stolen for the $20 deposit too often. The stoners will be waiting for this blu-ray more eagerly than they do the Domino’s delivery dude.
Iron Man 2 – Bigger suit. Can Robert Downey, Jr being a smart aleck and the promise of not just one more suit, but two drive this one to big numbers? Yeah. It’s a sequel.
They did “second suit” the first time out. Last time, the bigger suit baddie was bald. This time, he has dreads. Innovative.
I don’t really know what I think from this trailer. Rourke looks comical, but isn’t actually funny in the trailer. Cheadle in the second suit is interesting, but no sense of what kind of character choice putting on the suit is. The only interesting thing to me in Starks’ relationship with Pepper is that if she ever gives in, one of them is going to be hanging from straps and getting penetrated by something electronic… probably her doing it to him… powerful men and all… but that’ll wait for the fifth movie, rated R and in 4D.
The most interesting idea, as was started and lost in the first film, is privatized military.
But this trailer will work well for the first film’s loving audience.
Oscar Nastiness Pot Calls Kettle Black
Crazy Nikki Finke does the holiday routine of elderly, mean aunties everywhere, spreading gossip while pretending to just be the reporter telling the story of the bad behavior of others.
First, she recounts the Blu-rays given out at the Leo DiCaprio party for Tobey Maguire. Not a secret. Wrote about it the next morning.
Thing is, Maguire’s performance is tremendous… something I have been saying for over a year. And the biggest problem with him getting traction is that Lionsgate has prioritized Precious. Nikki, as always, has to throw mud, so she attacks Kelly Bush as “desperate.” Hardly. She’s doing her job. And she has been no more aggressive than many of the other personal publicists out there who believe in their clients.
Next, Nikki brings up more old conversation – covered weeks ago here – about whether the gross on The Hurt Locker will somehow disqualify it from winning Best Picture. Hardly badmouthing. A discussion point, overstated.
Next, C. Nikki goes on about Avatar… another week old story. No one serious is talking about nausea or box office being a problem for the movie… not since it was seen. (I will, however, have a DP/30 discussion with WETA effects god Joe Letteri about how they managed the problem that 100% full out 3D in chase scenes and others would, in fact, make people vomit.)
What idiot is claiming that Paramount is overspending on Up In The Air? Paramount has been much more conservative than last year and expects to actually make money on this movie, whereas Button was so expensive that they were fighting uphill the whole way. Complete non-story.
Badmouthing of Lee Daniels? Yeah. In the NY Times. A month ago. Is Nikki teaching history now?
A Serious Man being hard for Jews to take? Wow. That one goes back to stories done September. And no one who worked on the movie seems to take it seriously… even if it makes Focus staff a bit uncomfortable.
And attacking Harvey Weinstein based on credits issued by HFPA… which have had huge mistakes every single year I have covered the Globes announcements? Oh how the bitchy have fallen!
Nikki must be having a hard time getting anyone to tell her what’s going on now… and not just the old, played out news. So sad for her. The New Queen of Mean declawed by her own sources. Boo hoo.
