Friday Box Office Estimates

Lego Batman rolls along, though it is not up to par with The Lego Movie and doesn’t bode well for the future Lego-branded titles that don’t have the most powerful franchise brands in the movie business. Fifty Shades Darker is more than 40% off the first of the series, but it will still cross $100m+ domestic. Newcomer The Great Wall is outperforming low expectations, but hardly a hit. Fist Fight is looking at the worst Ice Cube opening in over a decade. And Fox doesn’t find much interest in A Cure for Wellness, sold as horror/thriller in-betweener.

Friday Box Office Estimates

-30%. -16%. +100%.

Those opening day drops for each of the “sequels” that opened on Friday. As you can see, John Wick 2 doubled its launch (and also its budget). Of course, even if it doubles its overall worldwide gross, JW2 is “only” a $175m worldwide movie. Lego and 50 Shades were $470m and $570m worldwide, respectively. Both “sequels” will be profitable. But how much will those original grosses drop when all is said and done?

Friday Box Office Estimates

Opening on Super Bowl weekend can be treacherous. Sunday is already the softest day of the box office weekend, but on Super Sunday, it’s positively limp. Last year, Universal counter-programmed the event with a Coen Bros movie, which did okay for a Coen Bros movie. This year, Paramount went out with the genre that tends to fall like a stone on Sunday anyway, horror, and released the reboot Rings, which will win the weekend with a bigger launch than Hail, Caesar!, but not close to the #1 movie last SB weekend, Panda 3. The other newcomer, The Space Between Us, has a lot of space between it and the top.

Friday Estimates

Split becomes a monster for Universal, likely to hold off the family film, A Dog’s Purpose, also from a happy Universal, scoring early in 2017 with 2 non-franchise films, reminding the industry that IP is not the only way. Resident Evil 6 doesn’t care much about the soft US opening. Their grosses have been 80% international the last 2 films, both over $195 million. La La Land and Hidden Figures both pass $100m domestic this weekend, buoyed by Oscar noms. Even with a nice expansion bump, Team La may be a little disappointed that the bump isn’t bigger. They’ll live. And the weekend bump may well be bigger than the Friday. Gold fools.

Friday Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

A big weekend for expansions and newcomers with one—Hidden Figures, Patriots Day, La La (which also adds IMAX screens), or the other, Bye Bye Man, taking up the top four slots plus another two openers (Sleepless, Monster Trucks) and an expansion (Live by Night) in the top 10. Sitting pat are the two big Christmas hits, Rogue One and Sing, and last week’s disappointing launch for Underworld 5. In limited/exclusive, if your film is in English, it’s not opening to 10k per or better this week.

Friday Box Office Estimates

Christmas limited Hidden Figures goes right to the top of New Year’s hangover weekend with a solid $20m+ opening weekend. The return of Underworld arrives in the U.S. with a thud, but the hope for big returns on this are around the world, where the franchise broke through with its most recent episode (2012), doubling its previous best effort and giving hope that this will be a $100m+ grosser internationally. La La Land doubles its screen count weeks before Oscar nominations (and hours before winning Best Musical/Comedy at The Globes, which don’t drive business) and stays even… which might be disappointing for Lionsgate. But it will pass $50 million this weekend and will keep chugging towards $100m domestic, so cheer up!

Friday Box Office Estimates

Seven studio Christmas weekend releases, four going wide, with three in exclusive runs. There is no comparative title for Sing, but the closest seems to be Alvin & The Chipmunks, which ended up with over $200m domestic. Passengers is looking to be Jennifer Lawrence’s worst wide opening, though not disastrously so, as international is anticipated as a big part of the box office total. Why Him? is soft, though not far off Sisters last December. And Assassin’s Creed seems to be Fox betting that the title will be the next Warcraft, which did only 10% of its business domestically. Silence will be the per-screen winner for the weekend by far, with Patriots Day poised to eventually do better wide than in exclusive release.

Friday Box Office Estimates

What more is there to say than, “Star Wars: Rogue One?” It is impossible to say exactly what the $70m Friday-plus opening will lead to this weekend, but using The Force Awakens as a comp, it should do about $150m over the 3-day-plus opening. Nothing to sneeze at, but not Top 10 all-time either. Also opening, Collateral Beauty, for which there is more than enough room in the marketplace as a counterprogrammer, meaning that it is not collateral damage, just a flop in its own right Also, expansions of La La Land and Manchester by the Sea go well, if not shockingly so.

Friday Box Office Estimates

The top grosser of the weekend will be Office Christmas Party. But the lead story will be La La Land, which, on five screens, will be behind only 1995’s Pocahontas and 2014’s The Grand Budapest Hotel in per-screen opening average on more than two screens.

Friday Box Office Estimates

It’s one of Hollywood’s least favorite weekends, the first weekend of December. The only new wide release is from a little-known independent. The bright light is Fox Searchlight’s Jackie, which is on five screens, averaging $18k on Friday alone, suggesting a weekend per-screen of over $50,000 per.

Friday Box Office Estimates

A mixed bag on Thanksgiving weekend at the box office. It’s early to get a full read on Moana as its launch outpaces Frozen, but it is a rarity for a big animated movie to open on Thanksgiving weekend. Tea leaves are blurry. Likewise, the question of Doctor Strange remains open, as its 24 days to get to $200 million domestic is right in the middle of the Marvel pack. And Fantastic Beasts is pacing right along with the 2nd and 3rd Potter films so far. Allied opens soft, pacing with Australia, though it would be worth noting that Australia did over $200m worldwide and Allied could well do the same. Arrival is the strong hold of the week. Bad Santa 2 peed on Santa’s leg. Lion and Miss Sloane deliver in exclusive runs.

Friday Box Office Estimates

Unexpectedly, Fantastic Beasts seems soft in the perspective of 5-day Harry Potter openings. Still, what may well be a $100m+ opening weekend would be foolish to doubt. The big Friday opening took steam out of the market, especially for family and action. The Edge of Seventeen has been a passion project for STX, but not much of a start. Tough to figure out what else they could have done to get it rolling. Great start for Manchester by the Sea. Solid for Nocturnal Animals.

Friday Box Office Estimates

Doctor Strange is building with unusually strong weekday numbers and a strong Friday hold Marvel’s latest entry is looking more like a high-200s domestic grosser than a low-200s, which would make it the only non-Iron-Man-starring product besides Guardians to explode out of the gate. Trolls holds solid. Arrival lands, although not overwhelmingly. (A movie meant to build.) And Almost Christmas opens less strongly than Will Packer’s This Christmas, but is aimed at Thanksgiving week. Also holding, Hacksaw Ridge. Big two-screen start for Ang Lee’s motion-emotion experiment of Billy Lynn’s Halftime Walk.

Friday Box Office Estimates

Doctor Strange delivers the fifth $30m+ opening day of 2016 and the first since Suicide Squad in August. It’s a solid opening, slightly better than the original Iron Man, which kicked off the Marvel Universe by Marvel and slightly behind Guardians. Trolls will not catch up, but will likely come just short of a $50 million launch, not quite at Disney levels, but strong for DreamWorks in recent years. Hacksaw Ridge gets off slowly.. .but will could build in middle America after the election.

Friday Box Office Estimates

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Friday Box Office Estimates

Tyler Perry puts on the Madea face again, this time with numbers slightly behind the last two big hits but well above the most recent Madea, which was Santa soft. Look for a weekend number in the low 20s. The return of Jack Reacher was met by action yawns, though it was a 74% better start than the first in the series, which makes its profits internationally. Did we need a second Ouija? Apparently not. But it will still make money. And Keeping Up With The Joneses tanked. Not a great movie, but much better than that. Four terrific performers who can’t open a movie.

Friday Box Office Estimates

Accounting for taste, Ben Affleck’s latest (and unlikely to be last) super-genius fantasy, The Accountant tallies $9 million. Kevin Hart shouts his way to $4.7 million with What Now, while Girl on the Train tracks to a 58% dropoff, for $3.9 million and a $38.5 million cume.